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    "sections": [
      {
        "title": "RECOMMENDED FOR PUBLICATION",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "Pursuant to Sixth Circuit I.O.P. 32.1(b)",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "File Name: 26a0127p.06",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "FOR THE SIXTH CIRCUIT",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "ELIZABETH K. KERWIN, Regional Director Seventh",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "Region of the National Labor Relations Board on",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_8",
          "para_9",
          "para_10",
          "para_11",
          "para_12",
          "para_13",
          "para_14",
          "para_15",
          "para_16",
          "para_17",
          "para_18",
          "para_19",
          "para_20",
          "para_21",
          "para_22",
          "para_23"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "Appeal from the United States District Court",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_26",
          "para_27"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Argued: December 10, 2025",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "Decided and Filed: May 1, 2026",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_30",
          "para_31"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "COUNSEL",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_33",
          "para_34",
          "para_35",
          "para_36",
          "para_37",
          "para_38",
          "para_39",
          "para_40"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 2",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_42"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "OPINION",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_44"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "READLER, Circuit Judge. Amid a contentious labor election process, Trinity Health",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_46",
          "para_47",
          "para_48",
          "para_49",
          "para_50",
          "para_51",
          "para_52",
          "para_53"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Trinity Health Grand Haven Hospital is a small community hospital serving patients in",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_55",
          "para_56",
          "para_57",
          "para_58"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "A few months before Trinity took over, the collective bargaining agreement in place",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_60",
          "para_61",
          "para_62",
          "para_63",
          "para_64"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "By April 2023, however, negotiations had yet to yield a definitive agreement. Around the",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_66",
          "para_67",
          "para_68",
          "para_69"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 3",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_71"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Board in July 2023, the Board concluded there was sufficient support to call for a formal",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_73"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Trinity and the union entered into a Board-approved agreement to hold the election on",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "September 18 and 19, 2023, with results to be announced soon thereafter. Yet the path to",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_76",
          "para_77",
          "para_78",
          "para_79",
          "para_80",
          "para_81",
          "para_82",
          "para_83"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "The day before that announcement was to take place, Quinn delivered a so-called",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_85",
          "para_86",
          "para_87",
          "para_88",
          "para_89",
          "para_90",
          "para_91",
          "para_92",
          "para_93",
          "para_94",
          "para_95",
          "para_96",
          "para_97",
          "para_98"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 4",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "Trinity’s declaration of victory proved premature. The Board announced the election",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_101",
          "para_102",
          "para_103",
          "para_104",
          "para_105"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "The union responded by filing unfair labor practice charges with the Board. In the",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_107",
          "para_108",
          "para_109"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "ALJ, who ruled in the Director’s favor. Emphasizing the disaffection petition’s lack of",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_111",
          "para_112",
          "para_113"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "(Trinity appealed the ALJ’s ruling to the Board, but, because the Board has only recently",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_115"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "(confirming two Board members); New Process Steel, L.P. v. NLRB, 560 U.S. 674, 683–84",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "(2010) (requiring at least three Board members to adjudicate cases).)",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "During the ALJ proceedings, the Director also petitioned the district court for a",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_119"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "ALJ’s ruling on the unfair labor practice charged, concluded that the Director had made a",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_121",
          "para_122",
          "para_123",
          "para_124",
          "para_125",
          "para_126",
          "para_127",
          "para_128"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 5",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_130"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "On appeal, we ask whether the district court abused its discretion in granting a",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_132",
          "para_133",
          "para_134",
          "para_135"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "At issue here is the proper application of § 10(j) of the NLRA. That provision empowers",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_137",
          "para_138",
          "para_139",
          "para_140",
          "para_141",
          "para_142",
          "para_143",
          "para_144",
          "para_145",
          "para_146",
          "para_147",
          "para_148",
          "para_149",
          "para_150",
          "para_151"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Today is our first occasion to reconstruct our § 10(j) case law post-Starbucks (which, we",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_153",
          "para_154",
          "para_155",
          "para_156"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "2024) (quoting Munaf v. Geren, 553 U.S. 674, 689–90 (2008)). We also know that the second",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_158"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 6",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_160",
          "para_161",
          "para_162",
          "para_163",
          "para_164",
          "para_165",
          "para_166",
          "para_167"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Likelihood of success on the merits. Start with whether the Director is likely to succeed",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_169",
          "para_170",
          "para_171",
          "para_172",
          "para_173",
          "para_174",
          "para_175",
          "para_176",
          "para_177",
          "para_178",
          "para_179",
          "para_180",
          "para_181",
          "para_182",
          "para_183",
          "para_184"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "That takes us to the merits issues upon which the Director must prevail. The Director",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_186",
          "para_187",
          "para_188"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 7",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_190",
          "para_191",
          "para_192",
          "para_193",
          "para_194",
          "para_195",
          "para_196"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Here, the parties agree that the union, as the incumbent representative, presumptively",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_198",
          "para_199",
          "para_200",
          "para_201",
          "para_202",
          "para_203",
          "para_204",
          "para_205",
          "para_206",
          "para_207",
          "para_208",
          "para_209",
          "para_210"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Against this backdrop, the sole merits issue for the “likelihood of success” factor is",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_212",
          "para_213",
          "para_214"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "1. The Director’s chief argument is premised on the Board’s own cases holding that a",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_216",
          "para_217",
          "para_218"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 8",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_220",
          "para_221",
          "para_222",
          "para_223",
          "para_224"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Measured by that standard, the Director’s success would seem all but certain. Yet her",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_226",
          "para_227"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Director must make a “clear showing” that she is likely to succeed before this Court as we",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_229",
          "para_230",
          "para_231"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "144 S. Ct. at 2262). That raises the question: Would this Court likely adopt the Board’s",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_233"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "We think not. Start with the NLRA’s text. Trinity is first charged under § 8(a)(1) with",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_235",
          "para_236",
          "para_237",
          "para_238",
          "para_239",
          "para_240",
          "para_241",
          "para_242",
          "para_243",
          "para_244",
          "para_245",
          "para_246",
          "para_247"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 9",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "True, § 9(e)(2) does instruct that no decertification election may be held in the “twelve-",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_250",
          "para_251",
          "para_252",
          "para_253",
          "para_254",
          "para_255",
          "para_256",
          "para_257",
          "para_258",
          "para_259"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "The Director, for her part, offers no text-based argument to support the Board’s",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_261",
          "para_262",
          "para_263"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Corp., 47 NLRB 835, 844–47 (1943) (justifying the Board’s rule based on “the advantages of",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_265",
          "para_266",
          "para_267",
          "para_268"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Only the Supreme Court’s decision in Brooks v. NLRB, 348 U.S. 96 (1954), lends the",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_270",
          "para_271",
          "para_272",
          "para_273",
          "para_274",
          "para_275",
          "para_276"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 10",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_278",
          "para_279"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "In some respects, that reasoning analogizes here. Yet the Board’s reliance on Brooks is",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_281",
          "para_282",
          "para_283"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Brooks to decertification elections. See Cmty. Support Network, 363 NLRB at 833–34. A",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_285",
          "para_286",
          "para_287",
          "para_288",
          "para_289",
          "para_290",
          "para_291",
          "para_292",
          "para_293"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "2. Now turn to the Director’s backup argument. Even if Trinity were not categorically",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_295",
          "para_296",
          "para_297",
          "para_298",
          "para_299",
          "para_300",
          "para_301",
          "para_302",
          "para_303",
          "para_304",
          "para_305",
          "para_306"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 11",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_308",
          "para_309",
          "para_310",
          "para_311",
          "para_312",
          "para_313",
          "para_314",
          "para_315"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "What is more, three of the signed pages (accounting for 46 signatures) contain no",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_317",
          "para_318",
          "para_319",
          "para_320",
          "para_321",
          "para_322",
          "para_323",
          "para_324",
          "para_325",
          "para_326",
          "para_327",
          "para_328",
          "para_329",
          "para_330",
          "para_331",
          "para_332",
          "para_333",
          "para_334",
          "para_335",
          "para_336"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 12",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_338",
          "para_339",
          "para_340",
          "para_341",
          "para_342",
          "para_343",
          "para_344",
          "para_345",
          "para_346",
          "para_347",
          "para_348",
          "para_349",
          "para_350",
          "para_351",
          "para_352",
          "para_353",
          "para_354"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Irreparable harm. Even with the Director having established a likelihood of success on",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_356",
          "para_357",
          "para_358",
          "para_359",
          "para_360",
          "para_361",
          "para_362",
          "para_363",
          "para_364",
          "para_365"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "LLC v. NLRB, 929 F.3d 321, 328 (6th Cir. 2019) (ordering bargaining and reinstatement of",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 13",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_368",
          "para_369",
          "para_370",
          "para_371",
          "para_372"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "1. Today’s case is not one of those unusual instances. Section 10(j) relief, we",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_374",
          "para_375",
          "para_376",
          "para_377",
          "para_378",
          "para_379",
          "para_380",
          "para_381",
          "para_382",
          "para_383",
          "para_384"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "From where does the Director derive her argument? Primarily, decisions from the Ninth",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_386",
          "para_387",
          "para_388"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Inc., 54 F.4th 1101, 1115, 1118 (9th Cir. 2022) (quoting Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1362). In the",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_390",
          "para_391",
          "para_392",
          "para_393",
          "para_394"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 14",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "In the wake of Starbucks, we decline to adopt such a rule. There, the Supreme Court",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_397",
          "para_398",
          "para_399",
          "para_400",
          "para_401",
          "para_402",
          "para_403"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Granting such an extraordinary remedy based on nothing but “speculative and categorical”",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_405",
          "para_406",
          "para_407",
          "para_408"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "To be sure, every court resolving a preliminary injunction motion must inevitably make",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_410",
          "para_411",
          "para_412",
          "para_413",
          "para_414",
          "para_415",
          "para_416",
          "para_417",
          "para_418",
          "para_419",
          "para_420",
          "para_421"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Seeing things otherwise, the Director calls our attention to the Second Circuit’s post-",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_423",
          "para_424"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 15",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_426",
          "para_427",
          "para_428",
          "para_429",
          "para_430",
          "para_431",
          "para_432",
          "para_433",
          "para_434",
          "para_435",
          "para_436"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "The dissenting opinion, for its part, suggests that our approach departs from this Court’s",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_438",
          "para_439",
          "para_440",
          "para_441",
          "para_442",
          "para_443",
          "para_444",
          "para_445",
          "para_446",
          "para_447",
          "para_448",
          "para_449",
          "para_450"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Indeed, not even the dissenting opinion is willing to adopt the aggressive inference the",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_452",
          "para_453",
          "para_454"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 16",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_456",
          "para_457",
          "para_458",
          "para_459",
          "para_460",
          "para_461",
          "para_462",
          "para_463",
          "para_464"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "So we turn to that evidence now. To our mind, had the district court had the benefit of",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_466",
          "para_467",
          "para_468",
          "para_469",
          "para_470",
          "para_471",
          "para_472",
          "para_473",
          "para_474",
          "para_475",
          "para_476",
          "para_477",
          "para_478",
          "para_479"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "The Director’s other piece of affirmative evidence is a witness affidavit submitted by a",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_481",
          "para_482",
          "para_483",
          "para_484"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 17",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_486",
          "para_487"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "At best, the affidavit cites just three specific examples of employee dissatisfaction: one",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_489",
          "para_490",
          "para_491",
          "para_492",
          "para_493",
          "para_494",
          "para_495",
          "para_496",
          "para_497",
          "para_498"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Switching gears, the Director alternatively argues that, absent an injunction, Trinity’s",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_500",
          "para_501",
          "para_502",
          "para_503",
          "para_504",
          "para_505",
          "para_506",
          "para_507",
          "para_508",
          "para_509",
          "para_510",
          "para_511",
          "para_512",
          "para_513",
          "para_514"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 18",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_516",
          "para_517"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "More fundamentally, the Director fails to explain how Trinity’s unilateral changes will",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_519",
          "para_520",
          "para_521",
          "para_522",
          "para_523",
          "para_524"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "In reaching a different conclusion, the dissenting opinion sees the resolution here as",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_526",
          "para_527",
          "para_528"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "See Trinity Health, 2024 WL 4579090, at *9. Likely because the district court made a",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_530",
          "para_531",
          "para_532",
          "para_533",
          "para_534",
          "para_535",
          "para_536",
          "para_537",
          "para_538"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "To recap: For the Director to have demonstrated irreparable harm, she needed to",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_540",
          "para_541",
          "para_542",
          "para_543"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 19",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_545",
          "para_546"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "2. Were there any doubt on that score, the Director’s delay in seeking an injunction seals",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_548",
          "para_549"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "(citing cases); see Cheetah Miner USA, Inc. v. 19200 Glendale, LLC, No. 23-1410, 2023 WL",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_551",
          "para_552",
          "para_553",
          "para_554"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "(11th Cir. 2013) (finding that a delay of “more than four months” was “further evidence”",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_556",
          "para_557",
          "para_558"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "How long was the Director’s delay? The parties here dispute the answer. Trinity says",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_560",
          "para_561",
          "para_562",
          "para_563",
          "para_564",
          "para_565",
          "para_566",
          "para_567",
          "para_568",
          "para_569"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "The district court, for its part, did not decide which length of delay to credit, deciding",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_571",
          "para_572",
          "para_573"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 20",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_575",
          "para_576",
          "para_577",
          "para_578",
          "para_579",
          "para_580",
          "para_581",
          "para_582",
          "para_583",
          "para_584",
          "para_585",
          "para_586"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "On the whole, the dissenting opinion faults our approach as setting too high a bar. See",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_588",
          "para_589",
          "para_590",
          "para_591",
          "para_592",
          "para_593",
          "para_594",
          "para_595",
          "para_596",
          "para_597"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Balance of equities and public interest. Though not necessary to today’s outcome, it",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_599",
          "para_600",
          "para_601",
          "para_602",
          "para_603"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 21",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_605",
          "para_606"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "With respect to the public interest, the Director cites “industrial peace” and a desire to",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_608",
          "para_609",
          "para_610",
          "para_611",
          "para_612",
          "para_613",
          "para_614",
          "para_615",
          "para_616",
          "para_617",
          "para_618",
          "para_619",
          "para_620",
          "para_621"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 22",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_623"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "DISSENT",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_625"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "BOGGS, Circuit Judge, dissenting. I agree that the Director has demonstrated a",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_627",
          "para_628",
          "para_629",
          "para_630"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Starbucks made headlines in our court, but it was old news for many of our peers. The",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "Fourth, Seventh, Eighth, and Ninth Circuits have long applied the traditional four-factor",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_633",
          "para_634",
          "para_635",
          "para_636",
          "para_637",
          "para_638",
          "para_639",
          "para_640",
          "para_641"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "I",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "A",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_644",
          "para_645",
          "para_646"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Nat. Res. Def. Council, Inc., 555 U.S. 7, 20 (2008). Congress has authorized the Board to",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_648",
          "para_649"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 23",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_651",
          "para_652"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "At least four of our peer circuits have long reviewed § 10(j) petitions under the same",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_654",
          "para_655"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Cir. 2001); McKinney v. Southern Bakeries, LLC, 786 F.3d 1119, 1122–23 (8th Cir. 2015);",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "Frankl v. HTH Corp., 650 F.3d 1334, 1362 (9th Cir. 2011). Until recently, however, we",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_658",
          "para_659",
          "para_660"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "(quoting McKinney v. Ozburn-Hessey Logistics, LLC, 875 F.3d 333, 339 (6th Cir. 2017)). Our",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_662",
          "para_663",
          "para_664"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Starbucks overruled our § 10(j) precedents, but it did not leave a blank slate. Nothing in",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_666",
          "para_667",
          "para_668",
          "para_669",
          "para_670",
          "para_671",
          "para_672"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "B",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "Unquestionably, the Director must demonstrate a likelihood of irreparable harm no matter",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_675",
          "para_676",
          "para_677"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Plasterers’ and Cement Masons’ Int’l Ass’n, Local 200, 611 F.3d 483, 494 (9th Cir. 2010))",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 24",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_680",
          "para_681",
          "para_682",
          "para_683",
          "para_684",
          "para_685",
          "para_686",
          "para_687",
          "para_688",
          "para_689",
          "para_690"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "The Board’s remedial powers are fragile. Its core remedy for an unlawful withdrawal of",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_692",
          "para_693",
          "para_694",
          "para_695",
          "para_696",
          "para_697",
          "para_698",
          "para_699",
          "para_700",
          "para_701",
          "para_702",
          "para_703",
          "para_704",
          "para_705",
          "para_706",
          "para_707",
          "para_708"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 25",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_710",
          "para_711",
          "para_712",
          "para_713",
          "para_714",
          "para_715",
          "para_716",
          "para_717",
          "para_718",
          "para_719",
          "para_720",
          "para_721",
          "para_722",
          "para_723",
          "para_724",
          "para_725",
          "para_726"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "These considerations have prompted courts to develop analytical frameworks to navigate",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_728",
          "para_729",
          "para_730",
          "para_731",
          "para_732",
          "para_733",
          "para_734"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "A sequence of Ninth Circuit cases illustrates the distinction between (prohibited)",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_736",
          "para_737",
          "para_738"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 26",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_740",
          "para_741",
          "para_742",
          "para_743",
          "para_744",
          "para_745"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Board’s remedial powers by depressing union support and distorting the parties’ bargaining",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_747"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "A decade later, the court clarified Frankl after some district judges read it to permit a",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_749",
          "para_750",
          "para_751",
          "para_752",
          "para_753",
          "para_754",
          "para_755",
          "para_756",
          "para_757",
          "para_758",
          "para_759",
          "para_760",
          "para_761",
          "para_762",
          "para_763",
          "para_764",
          "para_765",
          "para_766",
          "para_767",
          "para_768"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 27",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_770",
          "para_771"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "U.S. 139, 157 (2010)). But in contrast to a mandatory presumption, which inappropriately",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_773",
          "para_774",
          "para_775",
          "para_776",
          "para_777",
          "para_778",
          "para_779"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "The Fourth Circuit has held similarly, barring the use of mandatory presumptions without",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_781",
          "para_782",
          "para_783",
          "para_784",
          "para_785",
          "para_786",
          "para_787",
          "para_788",
          "para_789",
          "para_790",
          "para_791",
          "para_792"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Applying Winter in other settings, our court has also approved permissive inferences as",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_794",
          "para_795",
          "para_796",
          "para_797",
          "para_798"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 28",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_800",
          "para_801",
          "para_802",
          "para_803",
          "para_804",
          "para_805",
          "para_806",
          "para_807",
          "para_808"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Collectively, these cases rightly rejected the use of mandatory presumptions that collapse",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_810",
          "para_811",
          "para_812",
          "para_813",
          "para_814",
          "para_815",
          "para_816",
          "para_817",
          "para_818",
          "para_819",
          "para_820",
          "para_821",
          "para_822"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "The district court followed this approach, applying the correct legal standard because it",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_824",
          "para_825",
          "para_826",
          "para_827",
          "para_828"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 29",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_830",
          "para_831",
          "para_832",
          "para_833",
          "para_834",
          "para_835",
          "para_836",
          "para_837",
          "para_838",
          "para_839"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "As other circuits have approved in reviewing § 10(j) petitions, and applying reasoning we",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_841",
          "para_842",
          "para_843",
          "para_844"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "C",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_846",
          "para_847",
          "para_848",
          "para_849",
          "para_850",
          "para_851",
          "para_852",
          "para_853",
          "para_854",
          "para_855",
          "para_856",
          "para_857"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 30",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "The district court did not clearly err in finding that Kerwin made an adequate showing of",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_860",
          "para_861",
          "para_862",
          "para_863",
          "para_864",
          "para_865",
          "para_866",
          "para_867",
          "para_868"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Certified Restoration, 511 F.3d at 541. The district court made reasonable findings from",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_870",
          "para_871",
          "para_872",
          "para_873",
          "para_874",
          "para_875",
          "para_876",
          "para_877",
          "para_878"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "2023, occurred after the decertification election but before the hospital’s withdrawal of",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_880",
          "para_881",
          "para_882",
          "para_883"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Perhaps, if I were a district judge, I might find this data insufficient to conclude that",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_885",
          "para_886",
          "para_887"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 31",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "21.83) and that two of the three lowest-attended meetings occurred post-withdrawal. The",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_890",
          "para_891",
          "para_892",
          "para_893",
          "para_894",
          "para_895",
          "para_896",
          "para_897",
          "para_898",
          "para_899",
          "para_900",
          "para_901",
          "para_902",
          "para_903",
          "para_904",
          "para_905",
          "para_906",
          "para_907",
          "para_908",
          "para_909",
          "para_910",
          "para_911",
          "para_912",
          "para_913",
          "para_914",
          "para_915",
          "para_916",
          "para_917"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 32",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "The corroborated fact that the hospital altered many policies governing pay and",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_920",
          "para_921",
          "para_922",
          "para_923",
          "para_924",
          "para_925",
          "para_926",
          "para_927",
          "para_928",
          "para_929",
          "para_930"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "The Director timely acted upon these risks. She petitioned for injunctive relief within",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_932",
          "para_933",
          "para_934",
          "para_935",
          "para_936",
          "para_937",
          "para_938",
          "para_939",
          "para_940",
          "para_941"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "There is a different delay worthy of concern, however: the years-long wait for the",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_943",
          "para_944",
          "para_945",
          "para_946",
          "para_947"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 33",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_949",
          "para_950"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "In sum, while the evidence could have led the district court to a different conclusion, it",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_952"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "II",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "Briefly, I also disagree with the majority regarding the balance of the equities and the",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_955",
          "para_956",
          "para_957",
          "para_958",
          "para_959",
          "para_960",
          "para_961",
          "para_962",
          "para_963",
          "para_964",
          "para_965"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "III",
        "paragraphs": []
      },
      {
        "title": "The majority opinion understandably seeks to preserve Winter’s rigor, but it travels too",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_968",
          "para_969",
          "para_970",
          "para_971",
          "para_972",
          "para_973",
          "para_974",
          "para_975",
          "para_976"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 34",
        "paragraphs": [
          "para_978",
          "para_979",
          "para_980",
          "para_981"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "paragraphs": [
      {
        "text": "RECOMMENDED FOR PUBLICATION",
        "paragraph_id": "para_1"
      },
      {
        "text": "Pursuant to Sixth Circuit I.O.P. 32.1(b)",
        "paragraph_id": "para_2"
      },
      {
        "text": "File Name: 26a0127p.06",
        "paragraph_id": "para_3"
      },
      {
        "text": "UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS",
        "paragraph_id": "para_4"
      },
      {
        "text": "FOR THE SIXTH CIRCUIT",
        "paragraph_id": "para_5"
      },
      {
        "text": "ELIZABETH K. KERWIN, Regional Director Seventh",
        "paragraph_id": "para_6"
      },
      {
        "text": "Region of the National Labor Relations Board on",
        "paragraph_id": "para_7"
      },
      {
        "text": "behalf of National Labor Relations Board,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_8"
      },
      {
        "text": "Petitioner-Appellee,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_9"
      },
      {
        "text": "v.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_10"
      },
      {
        "text": "TRINITY HEALTH GRAND HAVEN HOSPITAL,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_11"
      },
      {
        "text": "Respondent - Appellant.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_12"
      },
      {
        "text": "┐",
        "paragraph_id": "para_13"
      },
      {
        "text": "│",
        "paragraph_id": "para_14"
      },
      {
        "text": "│",
        "paragraph_id": "para_15"
      },
      {
        "text": "│",
        "paragraph_id": "para_16"
      },
      {
        "text": "│",
        "paragraph_id": "para_17"
      },
      {
        "text": "│",
        "paragraph_id": "para_18"
      },
      {
        "text": "│",
        "paragraph_id": "para_19"
      },
      {
        "text": "│",
        "paragraph_id": "para_20"
      },
      {
        "text": "│",
        "paragraph_id": "para_21"
      },
      {
        "text": "│",
        "paragraph_id": "para_22"
      },
      {
        "text": "┘",
        "paragraph_id": "para_23"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975",
        "paragraph_id": "para_24"
      },
      {
        "text": "Appeal from the United States District Court",
        "paragraph_id": "para_25"
      },
      {
        "text": "for the Western District of Michigan at Grand Rapids.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_26"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 1:24-cv-00445—Robert J. Jonker, District Judge.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_27"
      },
      {
        "text": "Argued: December 10, 2025",
        "paragraph_id": "para_28"
      },
      {
        "text": "Decided and Filed: May 1, 2026",
        "paragraph_id": "para_29"
      },
      {
        "text": "Before: BOGGS, BUSH, and READLER, Circuit Judges.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_30"
      },
      {
        "text": "_________________",
        "paragraph_id": "para_31"
      },
      {
        "text": "COUNSEL",
        "paragraph_id": "para_32"
      },
      {
        "text": "ARGUED: Richard W. Fanning, Jr., CLARK HILL PLC, Detroit, Michigan, for Appellant.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_33"
      },
      {
        "text": "Elise F. Oviedo, NATIONAL LABOR RELATIONS BOARD, Washington, D.C., for Appellee.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_34"
      },
      {
        "text": "ON BRIEF: Richard W. Fanning, Jr., Brian D. Shekell, CLARK HILL PLC, Detroit, Michigan,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_35"
      },
      {
        "text": "for Appellant. Elise F. Oviedo, Kyle A. Mohr, NATIONAL LABOR RELATIONS BOARD,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_36"
      },
      {
        "text": "Washington, D.C., for Appellee.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_37"
      },
      {
        "text": "READLER, J., delivered the opinion of the court in which BUSH, J., concurred.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_38"
      },
      {
        "text": "BOGGS, J. (pp. 22–34), delivered a separate dissenting opinion.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_39"
      },
      {
        "text": ">",
        "paragraph_id": "para_40"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 2",
        "paragraph_id": "para_41"
      },
      {
        "text": "_________________",
        "paragraph_id": "para_42"
      },
      {
        "text": "OPINION",
        "paragraph_id": "para_43"
      },
      {
        "text": "_________________",
        "paragraph_id": "para_44"
      },
      {
        "text": "READLER, Circuit Judge. Amid a contentious labor election process, Trinity Health",
        "paragraph_id": "para_45"
      },
      {
        "text": "declared that it would no longer recognize the union responsible for representing the employees",
        "paragraph_id": "para_46"
      },
      {
        "text": "of Trinity’s Grand Haven hospital. While administrative proceedings were pending before the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_47"
      },
      {
        "text": "National Labor Relations Board, the Board’s Regional Director petitioned the district court for a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_48"
      },
      {
        "text": "preliminary injunction under § 10(j) of the NLRA. The district court granted that request and",
        "paragraph_id": "para_49"
      },
      {
        "text": "ordered Trinity to resume bargaining with the union. Although the Director is likely to succeed",
        "paragraph_id": "para_50"
      },
      {
        "text": "on the merits, she has failed to demonstrate that irreparable harm will result without an",
        "paragraph_id": "para_51"
      },
      {
        "text": "injunction. We therefore reverse the district court and vacate its order granting the injunction.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_52"
      },
      {
        "text": "I.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_53"
      },
      {
        "text": "Trinity Health Grand Haven Hospital is a small community hospital serving patients in",
        "paragraph_id": "para_54"
      },
      {
        "text": "western Michigan. In years past, the facility operated under a different name. At the time, the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_55"
      },
      {
        "text": "hospital maintained affable relations with its employee union, which represented the hospital’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_56"
      },
      {
        "text": "nurses, technical staff, housekeeping, and similar employees. But that relative peace soon ended",
        "paragraph_id": "para_57"
      },
      {
        "text": "when Trinity Health, a nationwide health system, acquired the hospital in June 2022.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_58"
      },
      {
        "text": "A few months before Trinity took over, the collective bargaining agreement in place",
        "paragraph_id": "para_59"
      },
      {
        "text": "between the hospital and the union expired. To keep in step with its new negotiating partner, the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_60"
      },
      {
        "text": "union voted to affiliate with the SEIU, an international service workers’ union. Trinity",
        "paragraph_id": "para_61"
      },
      {
        "text": "recognized the change of affiliation, agreed to extend the collective bargaining agreement",
        "paragraph_id": "para_62"
      },
      {
        "text": "through February 2023, and committed to negotiate a new agreement with the union down the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_63"
      },
      {
        "text": "road.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_64"
      },
      {
        "text": "By April 2023, however, negotiations had yet to yield a definitive agreement. Around the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_65"
      },
      {
        "text": "same time, Jamie Quinn, a Trinity employee, approached her supervisor about getting rid of the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_66"
      },
      {
        "text": "union. After consulting NLRB resources, Quinn spearheaded an effort to collect her coworkers’",
        "paragraph_id": "para_67"
      },
      {
        "text": "signatures in support of a petition to hold a vote on whether to remove the union, known as a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_68"
      },
      {
        "text": "“decertification” petition. With the help of a few sympathetic employees, Quinn gathered the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_69"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 3",
        "paragraph_id": "para_70"
      },
      {
        "text": "requisite number of petition signatures. And following Quinn’s filing of the petition with the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_71"
      },
      {
        "text": "Board in July 2023, the Board concluded there was sufficient support to call for a formal",
        "paragraph_id": "para_72"
      },
      {
        "text": "decertification election.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_73"
      },
      {
        "text": "Trinity and the union entered into a Board-approved agreement to hold the election on",
        "paragraph_id": "para_74"
      },
      {
        "text": "September 18 and 19, 2023, with results to be announced soon thereafter. Yet the path to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_75"
      },
      {
        "text": "learning the election’s results had its share of detours. As the parties were ironing out the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_76"
      },
      {
        "text": "election procedures, the union filed a request to block the counting of the ballots due to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_77"
      },
      {
        "text": "outstanding unfair labor practice charges it had previously filed against Trinity. This",
        "paragraph_id": "para_78"
      },
      {
        "text": "development, however, was not announced to Trinity. In fact, the Board did not inform Trinity",
        "paragraph_id": "para_79"
      },
      {
        "text": "or Quinn of the union’s request until the last day of voting. Nonetheless, at the election’s close,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_80"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Board impounded the ballots (as the union had requested) and did not reveal the results. A",
        "paragraph_id": "para_81"
      },
      {
        "text": "week later, on September 25, 2023, the union withdrew its blocking request. The Board in turn",
        "paragraph_id": "para_82"
      },
      {
        "text": "informed the parties that it would announce the results of the election on September 29.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_83"
      },
      {
        "text": "The day before that announcement was to take place, Quinn delivered a so-called",
        "paragraph_id": "para_84"
      },
      {
        "text": "“disaffection petition” (i.e., a petition to remove the union without an election) to Shelleye",
        "paragraph_id": "para_85"
      },
      {
        "text": "Yaklin, the hospital’s president. According to Quinn, she and her allies had continued collecting",
        "paragraph_id": "para_86"
      },
      {
        "text": "petition signatures after the election, supposedly from employees upset by the union’s blocking",
        "paragraph_id": "para_87"
      },
      {
        "text": "charge. All told, Quinn’s disaffection petition contained 94 signatures across seven pages. Yet it",
        "paragraph_id": "para_88"
      },
      {
        "text": "had several defects. Three of the seven pages—accounting for 45 signatures—did not display",
        "paragraph_id": "para_89"
      },
      {
        "text": "the petition’s statement of purpose, specifically, “We no longer wish to be represented by SEIU.”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_90"
      },
      {
        "text": "R.56-1, PageID 3068. Nor were any of the petition signatures dated. In fact, 60 signatures had",
        "paragraph_id": "para_91"
      },
      {
        "text": "been recycled from the earlier decertification petition. Upon receiving the disaffection petition,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_92"
      },
      {
        "text": "Yaklin did little to verify the signatures included therein. At most, it appears Yaklin and Trinity’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_93"
      },
      {
        "text": "human resources department tallied the raw numbers and determined that the total constituted a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_94"
      },
      {
        "text": "majority of Trinity’s roughly 180-member bargaining unit. A few hours after Quinn delivered",
        "paragraph_id": "para_95"
      },
      {
        "text": "the petition, Trinity announced that it had received “objective evidence” of the union’s loss of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_96"
      },
      {
        "text": "majority support, meaning that Trinity would withdraw recognition of the union and that",
        "paragraph_id": "para_97"
      },
      {
        "text": "collective bargaining would cease. Id., PageID 3068–69.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_98"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 4",
        "paragraph_id": "para_99"
      },
      {
        "text": "Trinity’s declaration of victory proved premature. The Board announced the election",
        "paragraph_id": "para_100"
      },
      {
        "text": "results the next day. Of the 182 eligible voters, 89 cast ballots in favor of the union, while only",
        "paragraph_id": "para_101"
      },
      {
        "text": "66 voted for decertification. Trinity objected to the election outcome, pointing to the disaffection",
        "paragraph_id": "para_102"
      },
      {
        "text": "petition, but the Board overruled Trinity’s objections. The Board then certified the union as the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_103"
      },
      {
        "text": "sole bargaining representative at the Grand Haven hospital. Nonetheless, Trinity dug in its heels",
        "paragraph_id": "para_104"
      },
      {
        "text": "and refused to recognize the union.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_105"
      },
      {
        "text": "The union responded by filing unfair labor practice charges with the Board. In the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_106"
      },
      {
        "text": "union’s view, Trinity’s unilateral withdrawal of recognition and subsequent refusal to bargain",
        "paragraph_id": "para_107"
      },
      {
        "text": "violated the National Labor Relations Act. After an investigation, the Board’s Regional Director,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_108"
      },
      {
        "text": "Elizabeth Kerwin, issued a formal complaint against Trinity. The matter was tried before an",
        "paragraph_id": "para_109"
      },
      {
        "text": "ALJ, who ruled in the Director’s favor. Emphasizing the disaffection petition’s lack of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_110"
      },
      {
        "text": "credibility, the ALJ found that Trinity did not have “objective evidence” that the union had lost",
        "paragraph_id": "para_111"
      },
      {
        "text": "majority support when it pulled recognition. As such, the ALJ concluded that Trinity violated",
        "paragraph_id": "para_112"
      },
      {
        "text": "§ 8(a)(1) and 8(a)(5) of the NLRA by refusing to bargain with a recognized union representative.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_113"
      },
      {
        "text": "(Trinity appealed the ALJ’s ruling to the Board, but, because the Board has only recently",
        "paragraph_id": "para_114"
      },
      {
        "text": "regained a quorum, the matter has yet to be decided. See S. Res. 532, 119th Cong. (2025)",
        "paragraph_id": "para_115"
      },
      {
        "text": "(confirming two Board members); New Process Steel, L.P. v. NLRB, 560 U.S. 674, 683–84",
        "paragraph_id": "para_116"
      },
      {
        "text": "(2010) (requiring at least three Board members to adjudicate cases).)",
        "paragraph_id": "para_117"
      },
      {
        "text": "During the ALJ proceedings, the Director also petitioned the district court for a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_118"
      },
      {
        "text": "preliminary injunction under § 10(j) of the NLRA. On that front, the district court, following the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_119"
      },
      {
        "text": "ALJ’s ruling on the unfair labor practice charged, concluded that the Director had made a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_120"
      },
      {
        "text": "sufficient showing to obtain interim relief. Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp., No.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_121"
      },
      {
        "text": "1:24-cv-445, 2024 WL 4579090 (W.D. Mich. Oct. 25, 2024). The court in turn ordered Trinity to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_122"
      },
      {
        "text": "recognize the union and resume bargaining pending its Board appeal. Trinity has thus far abided",
        "paragraph_id": "para_123"
      },
      {
        "text": "by the injunction, and negotiations with the union remain ongoing.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_124"
      },
      {
        "text": "At the same time, Trinity contests with us the district court’s award of the injunction.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_125"
      },
      {
        "text": "After filing its appeal, Trinity promptly moved this Court for an emergency stay of the injunction",
        "paragraph_id": "para_126"
      },
      {
        "text": "during the pendency of its appeal, which we declined to order. Before us now is Trinity’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_127"
      },
      {
        "text": "principal request to dissolve the injunction.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_128"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 5",
        "paragraph_id": "para_129"
      },
      {
        "text": "II.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_130"
      },
      {
        "text": "On appeal, we ask whether the district court abused its discretion in granting a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_131"
      },
      {
        "text": "preliminary injunction, reviewing that court’s legal analysis de novo and its findings of fact for",
        "paragraph_id": "para_132"
      },
      {
        "text": "clear error. EOG Res., Inc. v. Lucky Land Mgmt., LLC, 134 F.4th 868, 874 (6th Cir. 2025). How",
        "paragraph_id": "para_133"
      },
      {
        "text": "does a district court abuse its discretion in this setting? “[B]y identifying the wrong legal",
        "paragraph_id": "para_134"
      },
      {
        "text": "standard, improperly applying the right one, or relying on clearly erroneous factual findings.” Id.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_135"
      },
      {
        "text": "At issue here is the proper application of § 10(j) of the NLRA. That provision empowers",
        "paragraph_id": "para_136"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Board, upon issuing an “unfair labor practice” complaint, to petition a district court for",
        "paragraph_id": "para_137"
      },
      {
        "text": "“appropriate temporary relief,” which the district court may grant “as it deems just and proper.”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_138"
      },
      {
        "text": "29 U.S.C. § 160(j). Historically, our Circuit had read that statutory language as setting a low bar",
        "paragraph_id": "para_139"
      },
      {
        "text": "for the Board to clear to obtain a preliminary injunction; we would grant the Board’s request so",
        "paragraph_id": "para_140"
      },
      {
        "text": "long as there was “reasonable cause to believe that unfair labor practices ha[d] occurred,” and",
        "paragraph_id": "para_141"
      },
      {
        "text": "that relief was “just and proper.” McKinney v. Ozburn-Hessey Logistics, LLC, 875 F.3d 333, 339",
        "paragraph_id": "para_142"
      },
      {
        "text": "(6th Cir. 2017) (citation modified). Not long ago, the Supreme Court corrected this notable",
        "paragraph_id": "para_143"
      },
      {
        "text": "misunderstanding of § 10(j). In Starbucks Corp. v. McKinney, 144 S. Ct. 1570 (2024), the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_144"
      },
      {
        "text": "Supreme Court rejected our Circuit’s “watered-down approach to equity,” id. at 1578, clarifying",
        "paragraph_id": "para_145"
      },
      {
        "text": "that before the Board may be awarded a § 10(j) injunction, it must satisfy the four-factor test",
        "paragraph_id": "para_146"
      },
      {
        "text": "courts traditionally apply when a litigant seeks a preliminary injunction, see id. at 1576. That is,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_147"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Board must make a “clear showing” that (1) it is “likely to succeed on the merits,” (2) it “is",
        "paragraph_id": "para_148"
      },
      {
        "text": "likely to suffer an irreparable injury in the absence of preliminary relief,” (3) “the balance of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_149"
      },
      {
        "text": "equities tips in [its] favor,” and (4) “an injunction is in the public interest.” Id. (quoting Winter v.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_150"
      },
      {
        "text": "Nat. Res. Def. Council, Inc., 555 U.S. 7, 20 (2008)).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_151"
      },
      {
        "text": "Today is our first occasion to reconstruct our § 10(j) case law post-Starbucks (which, we",
        "paragraph_id": "para_152"
      },
      {
        "text": "recognize, left the district court to go it alone in this instance). The wealth of other preliminary",
        "paragraph_id": "para_153"
      },
      {
        "text": "injunction precedents in our circuit, however, means we need not start from scratch. We know,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_154"
      },
      {
        "text": "for instance, that a preliminary injunction is an “extraordinary and drastic remedy” that the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_155"
      },
      {
        "text": "Board should not get on easy terms. James B. Oswald Co. v. Neate, 98 F.4th 666, 672 (6th Cir.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_156"
      },
      {
        "text": "2024) (quoting Munaf v. Geren, 553 U.S. 674, 689–90 (2008)). We also know that the second",
        "paragraph_id": "para_157"
      },
      {
        "text": "factor—irreparable harm—“is the core of the preliminary injunction,” without which the Board’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_158"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 6",
        "paragraph_id": "para_159"
      },
      {
        "text": "request for relief falls flat. EOG Res., 134 F.4th at 883. To clear that high hurdle, the Board",
        "paragraph_id": "para_160"
      },
      {
        "text": "must show that the threatened irreparable harm is “both certain and immediate, not speculative",
        "paragraph_id": "para_161"
      },
      {
        "text": "and theoretical.” Memphis A. Philip Randolph Inst. v. Hargett, 978 F.3d 378, 391 (6th Cir.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_162"
      },
      {
        "text": "2020) (citation modified). And we also know that although “irreparable harm” and “likelihood",
        "paragraph_id": "para_163"
      },
      {
        "text": "of success” often predominate, Nken v. Holder, 556 U.S. 418, 434 (2009), failure to make a clear",
        "paragraph_id": "para_164"
      },
      {
        "text": "showing as to any of the four factors sinks the Board’s request, regardless of how strongly other",
        "paragraph_id": "para_165"
      },
      {
        "text": "factors might favor the Board, see EOG Res., 134 F.4th at 885 (citing Winter, 555 U.S. at 20).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_166"
      },
      {
        "text": "With all of this in mind, we now ask whether the Director has accomplished that tall order.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_167"
      },
      {
        "text": "Likelihood of success on the merits. Start with whether the Director is likely to succeed",
        "paragraph_id": "para_168"
      },
      {
        "text": "on the merits of her unfair labor practice claims. Starbucks, 144 S. Ct. at 1576. Difficult though",
        "paragraph_id": "para_169"
      },
      {
        "text": "it may be to believe, our previous “reasonable cause” test for assessing whether to issue",
        "paragraph_id": "para_170"
      },
      {
        "text": "injunctive relief never asked whether the Board (here, through the Director) in fact was likely to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_171"
      },
      {
        "text": "succeed in upholding its labor law determination. See McKinney v. Starbucks Corp., 77 F.4th",
        "paragraph_id": "para_172"
      },
      {
        "text": "391, 409 (6th Cir. 2023) (Readler, J., concurring), vacated, 144 S. Ct. 1570 (2024). That leaves",
        "paragraph_id": "para_173"
      },
      {
        "text": "us to first define what “success” means in this context. Critical to that consideration is defining",
        "paragraph_id": "para_174"
      },
      {
        "text": "before whom that success must be achieved. “Congress,” it bears noting, “did not make the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_175"
      },
      {
        "text": "Board’s remedial orders self-executing.” NLRB v. Starbucks, 159 F.4th 455, 471 (6th Cir. 2025).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_176"
      },
      {
        "text": "Instead, for the Board’s order to have any real-world effect (i.e., success), a court of appeals",
        "paragraph_id": "para_177"
      },
      {
        "text": "must enter a decree enforcing that order. See id. (citing 29 U.S.C. § 160(e)). And for the Board",
        "paragraph_id": "para_178"
      },
      {
        "text": "to obtain that decree, the court of appeals must agree with the Board’s conclusion, reviewing the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_179"
      },
      {
        "text": "Board’s legal conclusions de novo and any fact findings for “substantial evidence.” Id. In view",
        "paragraph_id": "para_180"
      },
      {
        "text": "of these realities, we understand “likelihood of success” for § 10(j) purposes to refer not only to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_181"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Director’s chances of victory before the Board, but also the odds that this Court would grant",
        "paragraph_id": "para_182"
      },
      {
        "text": "a petition to enforce the Board’s order. See Frankl v. HTH Corp., 650 F.3d 1334, 1355 (9th Cir.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_183"
      },
      {
        "text": "2011).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_184"
      },
      {
        "text": "That takes us to the merits issues upon which the Director must prevail. The Director",
        "paragraph_id": "para_185"
      },
      {
        "text": "charges Trinity with violating § 8(a)(1) and 8(a)(5) of the NLRA by unilaterally withdrawing its",
        "paragraph_id": "para_186"
      },
      {
        "text": "recognition of the union. Section 8(a)(1) prohibits employers from “interfer[ing] with,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_187"
      },
      {
        "text": "restrain[ing], or coerc[ing] employees in the exercise of the right[]” to participate in union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_188"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 7",
        "paragraph_id": "para_189"
      },
      {
        "text": "activity. 29 U.S.C. § 158(a)(1); see id. § 157. Section 8(a)(5), meanwhile, prohibits employers",
        "paragraph_id": "para_190"
      },
      {
        "text": "from “refus[ing] to bargain collectively with the representatives of [their] employees.” Id.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_191"
      },
      {
        "text": "§ 158(a)(5); see also id. § 159(a) (“Representatives [are] designated or selected for the purposes",
        "paragraph_id": "para_192"
      },
      {
        "text": "of collective bargaining by the majority of employees . . . .”). We have previously said that an",
        "paragraph_id": "para_193"
      },
      {
        "text": "employer violates these provisions by “unilaterally withdrawing recognition from a union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_194"
      },
      {
        "text": "supported by a majority of the bargaining unit’s members.” NLRB v. Galicks, Inc., 671 F.3d",
        "paragraph_id": "para_195"
      },
      {
        "text": "602, 610 (6th Cir. 2012) (citation modified).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_196"
      },
      {
        "text": "Here, the parties agree that the union, as the incumbent representative, presumptively",
        "paragraph_id": "para_197"
      },
      {
        "text": "enjoyed majority support at the time Trinity unilaterally withdrew recognition. See Auciello Iron",
        "paragraph_id": "para_198"
      },
      {
        "text": "Works, Inc. v. NLRB, 517 U.S. 781, 785–86 (1996). That leads the parties to assume that Trinity",
        "paragraph_id": "para_199"
      },
      {
        "text": "bears the burden to prove by a preponderance of the evidence that the union “had in fact lost the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_200"
      },
      {
        "text": "support of a majority of the unit employees.” Pac. Coast Supply, LLC v. NLRB, 801 F.3d 321,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_201"
      },
      {
        "text": "324–25 (D.C. Cir. 2015) (deriving this burden-shifting framework from Board case law). It is",
        "paragraph_id": "para_202"
      },
      {
        "text": "not at all clear, however, that this Board-crafted presumption finds support in the NLRA itself or",
        "paragraph_id": "para_203"
      },
      {
        "text": "otherwise deserves any deference. See Loper Bright Enters. v. Raimondo, 144 S. Ct. 2244, 2269",
        "paragraph_id": "para_204"
      },
      {
        "text": "(2024) (requiring “courts [to] exercise independent judgment in construing statutes administered",
        "paragraph_id": "para_205"
      },
      {
        "text": "by agencies”). That said, it makes no difference here who carries the burden of proof, so we take",
        "paragraph_id": "para_206"
      },
      {
        "text": "the case as presented to us. See United States v. Sineneng-Smith, 140 S. Ct. 1575, 1579 (2020).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_207"
      },
      {
        "text": "As a result, unless Trinity can show it had “objective evidence” that a majority of employees in",
        "paragraph_id": "para_208"
      },
      {
        "text": "the bargaining unit had abandoned the union, the Director will prevail on the merits. Wyman",
        "paragraph_id": "para_209"
      },
      {
        "text": "Gordon Pa., LLC v. NLRB, 836 F. App’x 1, 9–10 (D.C. Cir. 2020).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_210"
      },
      {
        "text": "Against this backdrop, the sole merits issue for the “likelihood of success” factor is",
        "paragraph_id": "para_211"
      },
      {
        "text": "whether the disaffection petition supplied Trinity with sufficient evidence to justify its refusal to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_212"
      },
      {
        "text": "bargain. The Director contends the answer is a likely “no,” for two reasons. We find only one of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_213"
      },
      {
        "text": "these grounds persuasive.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_214"
      },
      {
        "text": "1. The Director’s chief argument is premised on the Board’s own cases holding that a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_215"
      },
      {
        "text": "properly conducted election trumps as a matter of law any other evidence of repudiation that",
        "paragraph_id": "para_216"
      },
      {
        "text": "might arise post-election. Appellee Br. 23–26; see, e.g., Macy’s Inc., 361 NLRB 1490, 1490",
        "paragraph_id": "para_217"
      },
      {
        "text": "(2015) (“It is well settled that an alleged postelection loss of majority support is not relevant to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_218"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 8",
        "paragraph_id": "para_219"
      },
      {
        "text": "the question of whether a union should be certified as the result of a properly conducted Board",
        "paragraph_id": "para_220"
      },
      {
        "text": "election.”); Cmty. Support Network, 363 NLRB 833, 833–34 (2016) (applying this rule to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_221"
      },
      {
        "text": "decertification elections). Because Trinity does not contest the decertification election’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_222"
      },
      {
        "text": "legitimacy, the Director argues, the disaffection petition categorically fails given the election",
        "paragraph_id": "para_223"
      },
      {
        "text": "conducted less than two weeks earlier.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_224"
      },
      {
        "text": "Measured by that standard, the Director’s success would seem all but certain. Yet her",
        "paragraph_id": "para_225"
      },
      {
        "text": "argument depends on a fatal oversight. By focusing on how the Board would rule based on its",
        "paragraph_id": "para_226"
      },
      {
        "text": "own case law, the Director takes too narrow a view of “likelihood of success.” Recall that the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_227"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director must make a “clear showing” that she is likely to succeed before this Court as we",
        "paragraph_id": "para_228"
      },
      {
        "text": "engage in de novo review of the Board’s legal conclusions. And, it bears noting, “[w]e do not",
        "paragraph_id": "para_229"
      },
      {
        "text": "defer to the [Board’s] interpretation of the NLRA,” but instead use our “independent judgment.”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_230"
      },
      {
        "text": "Rieth-Riley Constr. Co., Inc. v. NLRB, 114 F.4th 519, 528 (6th Cir. 2024) (citing Loper Bright,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_231"
      },
      {
        "text": "144 S. Ct. at 2262). That raises the question: Would this Court likely adopt the Board’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_232"
      },
      {
        "text": "categorical rule in favor of elections?",
        "paragraph_id": "para_233"
      },
      {
        "text": "We think not. Start with the NLRA’s text. Trinity is first charged under § 8(a)(1) with",
        "paragraph_id": "para_234"
      },
      {
        "text": "“interfer[ing] . . . in the exercise of the rights guaranteed” in § 7 of the Act. 29 U.S.C.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_235"
      },
      {
        "text": "§ 158(a)(1). Section 7, however, does no more than announce the right to participate in union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_236"
      },
      {
        "text": "activity. See id. § 157. Trinity is also charged under § 8(a)(5) with “refus[ing] to bargain",
        "paragraph_id": "para_237"
      },
      {
        "text": "collectively with the representatives of his employees, subject to the provisions of [§ 9(a)].” Id.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_238"
      },
      {
        "text": "§ 158(a)(5). Yet § 9(a) simply defines the “representatives” with whom Trinity must bargain as",
        "paragraph_id": "para_239"
      },
      {
        "text": "those “designated or selected for the purpose of collective bargaining by the majority of the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_240"
      },
      {
        "text": "employees” in the bargaining unit. Id. § 159(a). Notably, this language does not expressly",
        "paragraph_id": "para_241"
      },
      {
        "text": "require that those representatives be installed or removed by election, as the Board itself",
        "paragraph_id": "para_242"
      },
      {
        "text": "acknowledges. See Your Right to Form a Union, NLRB, https://www.nlrb.gov/about-nlrb/rights-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_243"
      },
      {
        "text": "we-protect/the-law/employees/your-right-to-form-a-union (“An election is not the only way a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_244"
      },
      {
        "text": "union can become your representative.”). And more to the point, nothing in the text of the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_245"
      },
      {
        "text": "statute provides that the results of a decertification election always trump any contrary evidence",
        "paragraph_id": "para_246"
      },
      {
        "text": "of union support.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_247"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 9",
        "paragraph_id": "para_248"
      },
      {
        "text": "True, § 9(e)(2) does instruct that no decertification election may be held in the “twelve-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_249"
      },
      {
        "text": "month period” following an earlier “valid election.” Id. § 159(e)(2). For that reason, it may",
        "paragraph_id": "para_250"
      },
      {
        "text": "seem incongruous for the Act to ban decertification elections in the aftermath of an earlier",
        "paragraph_id": "para_251"
      },
      {
        "text": "election yet still allow for less formal challenges. Then again, the NLRA has long been",
        "paragraph_id": "para_252"
      },
      {
        "text": "understood to permit decertification by methods other than election. See, e.g., Levitz Furniture",
        "paragraph_id": "para_253"
      },
      {
        "text": "Co., 333 NLRB No. 105, at *1 (2001) (citing cases). So the Act’s limitation on decertification",
        "paragraph_id": "para_254"
      },
      {
        "text": "elections while simultaneously allowing for other avenues for decertification might reflect",
        "paragraph_id": "para_255"
      },
      {
        "text": "Congress’s understanding that elections are not the final word on union recognition. See City &",
        "paragraph_id": "para_256"
      },
      {
        "text": "County of San Francisco v. EPA, 145 S. Ct. 704, 714 (2025) (recognizing Congress’s omission",
        "paragraph_id": "para_257"
      },
      {
        "text": "of a statutory provision reflects on its intent). At the very least, this statutory language does not,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_258"
      },
      {
        "text": "as a matter of plain meaning, exclude the disaffection petition presented in this case.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_259"
      },
      {
        "text": "The Director, for her part, offers no text-based argument to support the Board’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_260"
      },
      {
        "text": "interpretation. See Argument Tr. 29:00–30:00 (citing one of the NLRA’s purposes in promoting",
        "paragraph_id": "para_261"
      },
      {
        "text": "“industrial harmony”). Instead, the Board’s preference for elections seemingly rests entirely on a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_262"
      },
      {
        "text": "New Deal-era policy choice in favor of administrability. Id.; see also Century Oxford Mfg.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_263"
      },
      {
        "text": "Corp., 47 NLRB 835, 844–47 (1943) (justifying the Board’s rule based on “the advantages of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_264"
      },
      {
        "text": "stability in collective bargaining” and ensuring that “administrative determinations [do not]",
        "paragraph_id": "para_265"
      },
      {
        "text": "become ephemeral”). But whatever merit the Board’s interpretation holds “from a policy",
        "paragraph_id": "para_266"
      },
      {
        "text": "standpoint, it has no basis whatsoever in the statute’s text.” Lawson v. FMR LLC, 571 U.S. 429,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_267"
      },
      {
        "text": "461 (2014) (Scalia, J., concurring).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_268"
      },
      {
        "text": "Only the Supreme Court’s decision in Brooks v. NLRB, 348 U.S. 96 (1954), lends the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_269"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director some margin of support. There, employees voted to certify a union as their bargaining",
        "paragraph_id": "para_270"
      },
      {
        "text": "representative only to later present their employer with a signed letter indicating that the union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_271"
      },
      {
        "text": "had lost majority support. Id. at 97. The Board demanded that the employer recognize the union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_272"
      },
      {
        "text": "anyway, citing its one-year-certification rule, which required employers to honor elections for at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_273"
      },
      {
        "text": "least one year notwithstanding informal repudiation. Id. at 99. The Supreme Court sided with",
        "paragraph_id": "para_274"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Board. Critical to that outcome was the fact that Congress had “devised a formal mode for",
        "paragraph_id": "para_275"
      },
      {
        "text": "selection and rejection of bargaining agents” and “fixed the spacing of elections[] with a view of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_276"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 10",
        "paragraph_id": "para_277"
      },
      {
        "text": "furthering industrial stability.” Id. at 103. As a result, the employees’ “informal repudiation”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_278"
      },
      {
        "text": "had no effect in the wake of a formal election. Id.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_279"
      },
      {
        "text": "In some respects, that reasoning analogizes here. Yet the Board’s reliance on Brooks is",
        "paragraph_id": "para_280"
      },
      {
        "text": "ultimately unavailing. One reason is that Brooks spoke to the preclusive effect of certification",
        "paragraph_id": "para_281"
      },
      {
        "text": "elections that successfully install a new union, not decertification elections that, as here, do not",
        "paragraph_id": "para_282"
      },
      {
        "text": "result in a change of representative. Id. at 97. Only the Board itself, it seems, has extended",
        "paragraph_id": "para_283"
      },
      {
        "text": "Brooks to decertification elections. See Cmty. Support Network, 363 NLRB at 833–34. A",
        "paragraph_id": "para_284"
      },
      {
        "text": "second reason, one arguably more important than the first, is that Brooks upheld the Board’s pro-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_285"
      },
      {
        "text": "election rule largely in deference to “the Board’s discretion in carrying out congressional",
        "paragraph_id": "para_286"
      },
      {
        "text": "policy.” 348 U.S. at 104. Today, of course, we do not give the Board the same leeway in",
        "paragraph_id": "para_287"
      },
      {
        "text": "interpreting the NLRA. See Rieth-Riley Constr. Co., 114 F.4th at 528 (“We do not defer to the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_288"
      },
      {
        "text": "NLRB’s interpretation of the NLRA.” (citing Loper Bright, 144 S. Ct. at 2262)).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_289"
      },
      {
        "text": "All said, the Board’s interpretation has at best shaky legal grounding. It follows that the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_290"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director has not clearly shown how she will persuade this Court to disregard the disaffection",
        "paragraph_id": "para_291"
      },
      {
        "text": "petition as a matter of law. We thus disagree that the disaffection petition “misse[d] the mark",
        "paragraph_id": "para_292"
      },
      {
        "text": "legally.” Trinity Health, 2024 WL 4579090, at *8.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_293"
      },
      {
        "text": "2. Now turn to the Director’s backup argument. Even if Trinity were not categorically",
        "paragraph_id": "para_294"
      },
      {
        "text": "precluded from relying on the disaffection petition because of the prior decertification election,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_295"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Director explains, the disaffection petition nonetheless failed as a factual matter to prove the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_296"
      },
      {
        "text": "union’s loss of majority support. Recall that the disaffection petition contained 94 signatures, a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_297"
      },
      {
        "text": "slight majority of what Trinity understood to be the hospital’s 180-member bargaining unit. That",
        "paragraph_id": "para_298"
      },
      {
        "text": "said, of the approximately 182 eligible voters (and of the 155 valid ballots cast) for the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_299"
      },
      {
        "text": "decertification vote, just 66 voted to decertify the union in the election (with 89 voting to keep",
        "paragraph_id": "para_300"
      },
      {
        "text": "it). Although the pro-union vote fell just shy of an absolute majority, it is difficult to reconcile",
        "paragraph_id": "para_301"
      },
      {
        "text": "the relatively low anti-union election turnout with the disaffection petition presented less than",
        "paragraph_id": "para_302"
      },
      {
        "text": "two weeks later. To the Director’s mind, there is no credible explanation for this apparently",
        "paragraph_id": "para_303"
      },
      {
        "text": "sudden drop in union support. Along those same lines, the ALJ found that the disaffection",
        "paragraph_id": "para_304"
      },
      {
        "text": "petition contained so “many defects” that it never gave “objective evidence” of employees’",
        "paragraph_id": "para_305"
      },
      {
        "text": "wishes in the first place. Appellee Br. 28.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_306"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 11",
        "paragraph_id": "para_307"
      },
      {
        "text": "The Director puts forward meaningful evidence to support her point. First and foremost,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_308"
      },
      {
        "text": "of the petition’s 94 signatures, only 34 could have been gathered after the election. The",
        "paragraph_id": "para_309"
      },
      {
        "text": "remaining 60 signatures had been submitted to the Director as part of the July 31, 2023, petition",
        "paragraph_id": "para_310"
      },
      {
        "text": "to hold the decertification election. That means some signatures had been gathered as early as",
        "paragraph_id": "para_311"
      },
      {
        "text": "May 2023—a full four months before the election—thereby undermining their value.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_312"
      },
      {
        "text": "Confirming as much, the ALJ identified at least one employee who hurriedly signed the petition",
        "paragraph_id": "para_313"
      },
      {
        "text": "to hold the decertification election yet ultimately voted for the union. The absence of dates on",
        "paragraph_id": "para_314"
      },
      {
        "text": "the petition only compounds this issue.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_315"
      },
      {
        "text": "What is more, three of the signed pages (accounting for 46 signatures) contain no",
        "paragraph_id": "para_316"
      },
      {
        "text": "language explaining the petition’s purpose. Although we decline to categorically disregard these",
        "paragraph_id": "para_317"
      },
      {
        "text": "pages as the Board has done in its own cases, see, e.g., Wyman Gordon Pa., LLC, 368 NLRB No.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_318"
      },
      {
        "text": "150, at *10 (2019), this reality further detracts from these signatures’ authenticity. For example,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_319"
      },
      {
        "text": "one employee who never saw the purpose statement unwittingly signed the petition believing it",
        "paragraph_id": "para_320"
      },
      {
        "text": "was about “better pay.” R.56-1, PageID 3067–68. And, for one of the pages that did contain a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_321"
      },
      {
        "text": "purpose statement, its ten signatures lack a printed name or job title, leaving it difficult to readily",
        "paragraph_id": "para_322"
      },
      {
        "text": "identify the signers as union members.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_323"
      },
      {
        "text": "Yet there are even more indicators that undermine Trinity’s disaffection determination.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_324"
      },
      {
        "text": "Within hours of Yaklin receiving the disaffection petition, Trinity declared it had received",
        "paragraph_id": "para_325"
      },
      {
        "text": "“objective evidence” that the union had lost majority support. Id., PageID 3068. Given that",
        "paragraph_id": "para_326"
      },
      {
        "text": "timing, taken alongside Yaklin’s testimony, the ALJ’s finding that Yaklin and others had not",
        "paragraph_id": "para_327"
      },
      {
        "text": "verified the petition’s accuracy will likely find support in “substantial evidence.” Starbucks, 159",
        "paragraph_id": "para_328"
      },
      {
        "text": "F.4th at 462.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_329"
      },
      {
        "text": "Trinity’s explanation of these events fails to convince us otherwise. Trinity first tries to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_330"
      },
      {
        "text": "square the disaffection petition with the election results. Here, Trinity highlights Quinn’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_331"
      },
      {
        "text": "testimony at the ALJ hearing that the union’s blocking of the election results caused “confusion”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_332"
      },
      {
        "text": "and “irritation” among Trinity’s employees. According to Quinn, employees continued to sign",
        "paragraph_id": "para_333"
      },
      {
        "text": "the disaffection petition after the election in opposition to the union’s meddling. Though perhaps",
        "paragraph_id": "para_334"
      },
      {
        "text": "a colorable explanation, it bears noting that the ALJ did not credit it because Quinn only cited the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_335"
      },
      {
        "text": "blocking charge as a galvanizing factor in response to a leading question. As for the disaffection",
        "paragraph_id": "para_336"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 12",
        "paragraph_id": "para_337"
      },
      {
        "text": "petition itself, Trinity acknowledges its defects, arguing instead that other evidence authenticates",
        "paragraph_id": "para_338"
      },
      {
        "text": "the attached signatures. Namely, Trinity highlights the testimony from canvassers who said they",
        "paragraph_id": "para_339"
      },
      {
        "text": "showed signers the disaffection petition’s purpose statement or otherwise orally explained its",
        "paragraph_id": "para_340"
      },
      {
        "text": "objective. At the same time, other testimony revealed instances of canvassers misinforming",
        "paragraph_id": "para_341"
      },
      {
        "text": "signers of the petition’s purpose. Taking all of this together, we see no basis to undermine the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_342"
      },
      {
        "text": "ALJ’s apparent conclusion that the petition process remained suspect.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_343"
      },
      {
        "text": "Trinity’s arguments, we acknowledge, cast at least some doubt on the Director’s position.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_344"
      },
      {
        "text": "But two practical considerations push the Director’s odds of success over the likelihood line.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_345"
      },
      {
        "text": "One, the disaffection petition garnered only a slight majority of Trinity’s bargaining unit. To",
        "paragraph_id": "para_346"
      },
      {
        "text": "lose even a few signatures would render the disaffection petition insufficient beyond dispute.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_347"
      },
      {
        "text": "Two, it bears remembering that this Court will eventually review the Board’s findings of fact on",
        "paragraph_id": "para_348"
      },
      {
        "text": "a deferential “substantial evidence” standard. Starbucks, 159 F.4th at 462 (citing 29 U.S.C.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_349"
      },
      {
        "text": "§ 160(e)). Should the Board adopt the ALJ’s findings—for example, the ALJ’s credibility",
        "paragraph_id": "para_350"
      },
      {
        "text": "determinations as to Quinn—that development would favor the Board in proceedings in this",
        "paragraph_id": "para_351"
      },
      {
        "text": "Court. See id. (citing Galicks, 671 F.3d at 607). Bearing this in mind, we ultimately agree with",
        "paragraph_id": "para_352"
      },
      {
        "text": "the district court that the Director has made a sufficiently “clear showing” that she is “likely to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_353"
      },
      {
        "text": "succeed on the merits.” Starbucks, 144 S. Ct. at 1576.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_354"
      },
      {
        "text": "Irreparable harm. Even with the Director having established a likelihood of success on",
        "paragraph_id": "para_355"
      },
      {
        "text": "the merits, we will not grant her an injunction unless she also demonstrates that the Board is",
        "paragraph_id": "para_356"
      },
      {
        "text": "likely to suffer “irreparable harm” in the absence of injunctive relief. See Hargett, 978 F.3d at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_357"
      },
      {
        "text": "391 (“Irreparable harm is an indispensable requirement for a preliminary injunction.” (citation",
        "paragraph_id": "para_358"
      },
      {
        "text": "modified)). When it comes to § 10(j) injunctions, irreparable harm means “harm that the Board,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_359"
      },
      {
        "text": "entrusted with its own enforcement powers, would otherwise be powerless to fix.” Starbucks, 77",
        "paragraph_id": "para_360"
      },
      {
        "text": "F.4th at 409 (Readler, J., concurring) (citing Henderson ex rel. NLRB v. Bluefield Hosp. Co., 902",
        "paragraph_id": "para_361"
      },
      {
        "text": "F.3d 432, 440 (4th Cir. 2018)). On that front, it bears emphasizing that the NLRA empowers the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_362"
      },
      {
        "text": "Board to “take . . . affirmative action” to remedy unfair labor practices. 29 U.S.C. § 160(c).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_363"
      },
      {
        "text": "That broad grant of equitable power authorizes an array of remedies including back pay,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_364"
      },
      {
        "text": "reinstatement, and, importantly here, an order to bargain in good faith. See, e.g., FirstEnergy,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_365"
      },
      {
        "text": "LLC v. NLRB, 929 F.3d 321, 328 (6th Cir. 2019) (ordering bargaining and reinstatement of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_366"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 13",
        "paragraph_id": "para_367"
      },
      {
        "text": "benefits). But see Starbucks, 159 F.4th at 478 (holding the Board lacks power to order",
        "paragraph_id": "para_368"
      },
      {
        "text": "consequential damages). Said differently, the Board’s remedial authority is far from “fragile.”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_369"
      },
      {
        "text": "Dissenting Op. at 24. Against this remedial backdrop, it is perhaps no surprise that only in “rare",
        "paragraph_id": "para_370"
      },
      {
        "text": "situations” is interim relief needed to protect “the Board’s ability to remedy . . . unfair labor",
        "paragraph_id": "para_371"
      },
      {
        "text": "practices.” Sharp v. Parents in Cmty. Action, Inc., 172 F.3d 1034, 1039 (8th Cir. 1999).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_372"
      },
      {
        "text": "1. Today’s case is not one of those unusual instances. Section 10(j) relief, we",
        "paragraph_id": "para_373"
      },
      {
        "text": "emphasize, “is an extraordinary equitable remedy that is never awarded as of right.” Starbucks,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_374"
      },
      {
        "text": "144 S. Ct. at 1576 (citation modified). And the kinds of situations that justify such a “drastic”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_375"
      },
      {
        "text": "measure do not arise on a day-to-day basis. Munaf, 553 U.S. at 689–90.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_376"
      },
      {
        "text": "Nonetheless, the Director believes she has cleared this high bar. Absent an injunction,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_377"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Director insists, Trinity’s refusal to recognize the union will erode union support to the point",
        "paragraph_id": "para_378"
      },
      {
        "text": "that the union will be unable to bargain effectively in the future. And that diminution in",
        "paragraph_id": "para_379"
      },
      {
        "text": "bargaining power, the Director’s reasoning goes, eludes the Board’s ability to fix going forward.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_380"
      },
      {
        "text": "According to the Director, this chain of causation is so “obvious” that, in her view, absent",
        "paragraph_id": "para_381"
      },
      {
        "text": "“unusual circumstances,” courts can infer irreparable harm in refusal to bargain cases like this",
        "paragraph_id": "para_382"
      },
      {
        "text": "one, even where the Director lacks notable evidence demonstrating as much. Appellee Br. 37–",
        "paragraph_id": "para_383"
      },
      {
        "text": "38.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_384"
      },
      {
        "text": "From where does the Director derive her argument? Primarily, decisions from the Ninth",
        "paragraph_id": "para_385"
      },
      {
        "text": "Circuit. Those cases hold that a court may (but need not) infer that an employer’s “refusal to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_386"
      },
      {
        "text": "bargain with a union” will cause irreparable harm due to the violation’s inherent “nature,” even if",
        "paragraph_id": "para_387"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Director offers no “independent factual support.” Hooks ex rel. NLRB v. Nexstar Broad.,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_388"
      },
      {
        "text": "Inc., 54 F.4th 1101, 1115, 1118 (9th Cir. 2022) (quoting Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1362). In the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_389"
      },
      {
        "text": "absence of direction from our Court, the district court seemed to follow the Ninth Circuit’s lead,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_390"
      },
      {
        "text": "emphasizing that alleged labor violations similar to Trinity’s have “long been understood as",
        "paragraph_id": "para_391"
      },
      {
        "text": "likely causing irreparable injury to union representation.” Trinity Health, 2024 WL 4579090, at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_392"
      },
      {
        "text": "*9 (quoting Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1362). The dissenting opinion, too, insists we follow this same",
        "paragraph_id": "para_393"
      },
      {
        "text": "course. See Dissenting Op. at 25–27.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_394"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 14",
        "paragraph_id": "para_395"
      },
      {
        "text": "In the wake of Starbucks, we decline to adopt such a rule. There, the Supreme Court",
        "paragraph_id": "para_396"
      },
      {
        "text": "clarified that the Director must meet her burden the same way as would any other plaintiff",
        "paragraph_id": "para_397"
      },
      {
        "text": "seeking to demonstrate irreparable harm to secure a preliminary injunction. See 144 S. Ct. at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_398"
      },
      {
        "text": "1578–79 (explaining that the Board must qualify for relief under “traditional equitable rules” to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_399"
      },
      {
        "text": "obtain an injunction under § 10(j)). That is, like everyone else, the Director must clearly",
        "paragraph_id": "para_400"
      },
      {
        "text": "demonstrate “certain and immediate” harm; “speculative or theoretical” explanations will not do.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_401"
      },
      {
        "text": "Hargett, 978 F.3d at 392 (quoting D.T. v. Sumner Cnty. Schs., 942 F.3d 324, 326–27 (6th Cir.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_402"
      },
      {
        "text": "2019)); see also Winter, 555 U.S. at 21 (“just a possibility” of irreparable harm is insufficient).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_403"
      },
      {
        "text": "Granting such an extraordinary remedy based on nothing but “speculative and categorical”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_404"
      },
      {
        "text": "statements about supposedly “inherent” harm conflicts with the rare nature in which we award",
        "paragraph_id": "para_405"
      },
      {
        "text": "such relief. Bluefield Hosp., 902 F.3d at 440. Indeed, if the irreparable harm the Director",
        "paragraph_id": "para_406"
      },
      {
        "text": "proffers here is so characteristically likely to flow from Trinity’s actions, it prompts one to ask",
        "paragraph_id": "para_407"
      },
      {
        "text": "why the Director cannot make a “clear showing” using affirmative evidence?",
        "paragraph_id": "para_408"
      },
      {
        "text": "To be sure, every court resolving a preliminary injunction motion must inevitably make",
        "paragraph_id": "para_409"
      },
      {
        "text": "reasonable predictions about future harm based on existing evidence. See Dissenting Op. at 33.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_410"
      },
      {
        "text": "And it may sometimes be the case that evidence proving a violation of law (including a labor",
        "paragraph_id": "para_411"
      },
      {
        "text": "law) will overlap with evidence demonstrating irreparable harm. See id. But these realities do",
        "paragraph_id": "para_412"
      },
      {
        "text": "not warrant special rules favoring the Board. Whether characterized as a “mandatory",
        "paragraph_id": "para_413"
      },
      {
        "text": "presumption” of irreparable harm in favor of the Board, or, alternatively, a “permissi[ve]”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_414"
      },
      {
        "text": "inference of such harm, id. at 28–29, we see no basis for putting a finger on the Board’s side of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_415"
      },
      {
        "text": "the scale, see Monsanto Co. v. Geertson Seed Farms, 561 U.S. 139, 157–58 (2010) (“[A] court’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_416"
      },
      {
        "text": "perfunctory recognition that an injunction does not automatically issue” does not justify a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_417"
      },
      {
        "text": "“thumb on the scales.” (citation modified)). In the end, whether permissive or mandatory,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_418"
      },
      {
        "text": "Trinity’s alleged refusal to bargain, standing alone, does not mean that “irreparable harm can be",
        "paragraph_id": "para_419"
      },
      {
        "text": "inferred,” Bluefield Hosp., 902 F.3d at 440, without the Director offering “independent factual",
        "paragraph_id": "para_420"
      },
      {
        "text": "support” of that harm, Hooks, 54 F.4th at 1118.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_421"
      },
      {
        "text": "Seeing things otherwise, the Director calls our attention to the Second Circuit’s post-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_422"
      },
      {
        "text": "Starbucks decision in Poor v. Parking Systems Plus, Inc., 162 F.4th 335 (2d Cir. 2025). There,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_423"
      },
      {
        "text": "the appeals court reasoned that Starbucks did not disturb the Second Circuit’s previous",
        "paragraph_id": "para_424"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 15",
        "paragraph_id": "para_425"
      },
      {
        "text": "statements about irreparable harm in the § 10(j) context. Id. at 351. And because that court’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_426"
      },
      {
        "text": "pre-Starbucks test paralleled our own, id. at 345, the Director explains, we should follow suit and",
        "paragraph_id": "para_427"
      },
      {
        "text": "allow permissible inferences for demonstrating irreparable harm. See Ahearn v. Jackson Hosp.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_428"
      },
      {
        "text": "Corp., 351 F.3d 226, 239 (6th Cir. 2003) (inferring a “chilling effect” under the “just and proper”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_429"
      },
      {
        "text": "standard). Respecting how the Second Circuit might assess its own jurisprudence, it remains the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_430"
      },
      {
        "text": "case that our Circuit has long recognized that our former “just and proper” test posed a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_431"
      },
      {
        "text": "significantly lower hurdle than the standard irreparable harm analysis we employ today. See",
        "paragraph_id": "para_432"
      },
      {
        "text": "Starbucks, 77 F.4th at 409 (Readler, J., concurring); Kobell ex rel. NLRB v. United Paperworkers",
        "paragraph_id": "para_433"
      },
      {
        "text": "Int’l Union, 965 F.2d 1401, 1409 n.3 (6th Cir. 1992). And with the Supreme Court’s Starbucks",
        "paragraph_id": "para_434"
      },
      {
        "text": "decision now our guiding light, we decline to follow prior cases that would artificially lighten the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_435"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director’s evidentiary burden.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_436"
      },
      {
        "text": "The dissenting opinion, for its part, suggests that our approach departs from this Court’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_437"
      },
      {
        "text": "customary practice of allowing “permissive inferences” of irreparable harm. Dissenting Op. at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_438"
      },
      {
        "text": "27–28. But in the dissenting opinion’s lone cited case, we found the district court’s “findings” of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_439"
      },
      {
        "text": "irreparable harm “well-supported” by “independent” evidence of such harm to the plaintiff’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_440"
      },
      {
        "text": "reputation stemming from the defendant’s conduct. ACT, Inc. v. Worldwide Interactive Network,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_441"
      },
      {
        "text": "Inc., 46 F.4th 489, 503–04 (6th Cir. 2022). For this reason, we expressly declined to reach the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_442"
      },
      {
        "text": "issue of whether a general presumption of irreparable harm can be recognized in copyright cases.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_443"
      },
      {
        "text": "Id. at 503. At most, we merely inferred that the independent evidence of defendant’s “history”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_444"
      },
      {
        "text": "of harming the plaintiff, plus the defendant’s “stated desire” to take similar actions, supported a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_445"
      },
      {
        "text": "showing of likely irreparable harm. Id. at 503–04. But we are aware of no case in which we",
        "paragraph_id": "para_446"
      },
      {
        "text": "have inferred harm based only on the “nature” of the act itself—the practice the Director asks us",
        "paragraph_id": "para_447"
      },
      {
        "text": "to employ. Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1362. Nor would we be wise to do so. After all, doing so would",
        "paragraph_id": "para_448"
      },
      {
        "text": "violate “traditional equitable rules.” Starbucks, 144 S. Ct. at 1578–79; see also ACT, Inc., 46",
        "paragraph_id": "para_449"
      },
      {
        "text": "F.4th at 503 (citing Winter, 555 U.S. at 22).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_450"
      },
      {
        "text": "Indeed, not even the dissenting opinion is willing to adopt the aggressive inference the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_451"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director requests (and we reject) today. See Appellee Br. 37 (“[E]stablishing a likelihood of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_452"
      },
      {
        "text": "success on an unlawful refusal to bargain . . . establishes likely irreparable harm . . . .”); see also",
        "paragraph_id": "para_453"
      },
      {
        "text": "Hooks, 54 F.4th at 1118 (“[T]he dissent agrees that ‘independent factual support is not required",
        "paragraph_id": "para_454"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 16",
        "paragraph_id": "para_455"
      },
      {
        "text": "when the court finds evidence of certain unfair labor practices.’” (quoting Frankl, 650 F.3d at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_456"
      },
      {
        "text": "1129)). In its place, the dissenting opinion appears to prefer a middle ground, one that would",
        "paragraph_id": "para_457"
      },
      {
        "text": "allow the district court to infer irreparable harm if “the facts indicate that” Trinity’s alleged",
        "paragraph_id": "para_458"
      },
      {
        "text": "refusal to bargain “ha[s] already depressed union support.” Dissenting Op. at 25. Although we",
        "paragraph_id": "para_459"
      },
      {
        "text": "reject any Board-tailored special inferences in this setting, in the end, it may be that the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_460"
      },
      {
        "text": "dissenting opinion’s framing renders our disagreement partially semantic. Perhaps, as the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_461"
      },
      {
        "text": "dissenting opinion itself acknowledges, the true source of disagreement stems from how one",
        "paragraph_id": "para_462"
      },
      {
        "text": "views what little independent evidence the Director has brought to bear. See Dissenting Op. at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_463"
      },
      {
        "text": "29.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_464"
      },
      {
        "text": "So we turn to that evidence now. To our mind, had the district court had the benefit of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_465"
      },
      {
        "text": "our decision today, which properly frames the Director’s burden, we think it would have taken a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_466"
      },
      {
        "text": "different view of the record and concluded that the Director has not demonstrated irreparable",
        "paragraph_id": "para_467"
      },
      {
        "text": "harm. Start where the Director does—with the union meeting attendance data from ten meetings",
        "paragraph_id": "para_468"
      },
      {
        "text": "between August 2023 and March 2024. The Director highlights that attendance hovered in the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_469"
      },
      {
        "text": "20s in the run-up to the election, but began falling after Trinity’s withdrawal of recognition,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_470"
      },
      {
        "text": "having just eight attendees in a March 2024 meeting, suggesting that Trinity’s actions caused",
        "paragraph_id": "para_471"
      },
      {
        "text": "union support to decline. But at least two points deeply undermine that conclusion. One, it is far",
        "paragraph_id": "para_472"
      },
      {
        "text": "from clear that meeting attendance, which never broke more than a sixth of the overall",
        "paragraph_id": "para_473"
      },
      {
        "text": "bargaining unit membership and depended upon hospital employees’ conflicting schedules,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_474"
      },
      {
        "text": "provides a meaningful gauge of support in the first place. Two, even accepting the Director’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_475"
      },
      {
        "text": "premise, Trinity just as ably reads its own inferences into these numbers, in many ways through a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_476"
      },
      {
        "text": "more precise examination. As Trinity notes, attendance fell to nine—its second lowest point—",
        "paragraph_id": "para_477"
      },
      {
        "text": "immediately after the election and rose back into the 20s immediately after Trinity’s withdrawal.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_478"
      },
      {
        "text": "Equivocal data like this plainly cannot support a clear showing of irreparable harm.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_479"
      },
      {
        "text": "The Director’s other piece of affirmative evidence is a witness affidavit submitted by a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_480"
      },
      {
        "text": "Trinity employee who served as the union president. The affidavit chiefly asserts, in broad",
        "paragraph_id": "para_481"
      },
      {
        "text": "terms, that Trinity’s withdrawal has caused “frustration and fear” among union employees. R.2-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_482"
      },
      {
        "text": "16, PageID 165. According to the affidavit, employees “feel[] like” Trinity is “treating [them]",
        "paragraph_id": "para_483"
      },
      {
        "text": "like at-will employees,” with the affiant’s “overall sense” being that employees are confused and",
        "paragraph_id": "para_484"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 17",
        "paragraph_id": "para_485"
      },
      {
        "text": "frustrated, with some “consider[ing] looking for other employment.” Id., PageID 165–66. But",
        "paragraph_id": "para_486"
      },
      {
        "text": "hazy statements like these do not sufficiently demonstrate irreparably declining union support.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_487"
      },
      {
        "text": "At best, the affidavit cites just three specific examples of employee dissatisfaction: one",
        "paragraph_id": "para_488"
      },
      {
        "text": "employee feared discussing union organizing, another left Trinity for a better-paying facility, and",
        "paragraph_id": "para_489"
      },
      {
        "text": "another began considering doing the same. Even if these three anecdotes could reliably evidence",
        "paragraph_id": "para_490"
      },
      {
        "text": "hospital-wide trends, the affidavit still fails to answer the key question, namely, whether union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_491"
      },
      {
        "text": "support will not just decline, but in fact decline to the extent that the union will be unable to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_492"
      },
      {
        "text": "negotiate effectively by the time the Board issues a final order. See Bluefield Hosp., 902 F.3d at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_493"
      },
      {
        "text": "440. And on that score, the Director essentially leaves us guessing. As a result, this evidence",
        "paragraph_id": "para_494"
      },
      {
        "text": "too fails to reflect a “clear showing” of irreparable harm. See id. (declining to find irreparable",
        "paragraph_id": "para_495"
      },
      {
        "text": "harm based only on employees “feel[ing] frustrated” by employer’s “failure to bargain in good",
        "paragraph_id": "para_496"
      },
      {
        "text": "faith”); see also Hargett, 978 F.3d at 391 (“To merit a preliminary injunction, an injury must be",
        "paragraph_id": "para_497"
      },
      {
        "text": "both certain and immediate, not speculative or theoretical.” (citation modified)).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_498"
      },
      {
        "text": "Switching gears, the Director alternatively argues that, absent an injunction, Trinity’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_499"
      },
      {
        "text": "employees will be irreparably deprived of benefits obtained through collective bargaining. The",
        "paragraph_id": "para_500"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director’s witness affidavit highlights Trinity’s post-withdrawal implementation of several",
        "paragraph_id": "para_501"
      },
      {
        "text": "policy changes, from “how overtime pay is calculated” to “holiday premium pay” to “the time",
        "paragraph_id": "para_502"
      },
      {
        "text": "required to not get a lunch from 5.5 hours to a 6 hour shift.” R.2-16, PageID 166. By all",
        "paragraph_id": "para_503"
      },
      {
        "text": "accounts, however, these developments, if in fact harmful to union members, seemingly could be",
        "paragraph_id": "para_504"
      },
      {
        "text": "rectified with “back pay” or other equitable remedies within the Board’s purview. See 29 U.S.C.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_505"
      },
      {
        "text": "§ 160(c). Falling back, the Director contends that collective bargaining often yields non-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_506"
      },
      {
        "text": "monetary benefits, the loss of which the Board cannot easily rectify, such as “safety and health",
        "paragraph_id": "para_507"
      },
      {
        "text": "conditions,” “job security,” and “the protection of a grievance-arbitration procedure.” Appellee",
        "paragraph_id": "para_508"
      },
      {
        "text": "Br. 40. Accepting that generalized contention, however, would mean that the Director would be",
        "paragraph_id": "para_509"
      },
      {
        "text": "entitled to an injunction anytime collective bargaining is disrupted in any way. Her argument",
        "paragraph_id": "para_510"
      },
      {
        "text": "thus proves too much. And even entertaining her position here, the Director points to no record",
        "paragraph_id": "para_511"
      },
      {
        "text": "evidence showing how Trinity’s employees will be deprived of similar benefits. To the contrary,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_512"
      },
      {
        "text": "Trinity has not operated under a collective bargaining agreement since February 2023. To date,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_513"
      },
      {
        "text": "negotiations have been slow-going, and the Director gives us “no reason to assume” that the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_514"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 18",
        "paragraph_id": "para_515"
      },
      {
        "text": "parties will reach a new agreement before the Board issues a final order. Bluefield Hosp., 902",
        "paragraph_id": "para_516"
      },
      {
        "text": "F.3d at 441 (citation modified). So this theory of harm gains no traction either.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_517"
      },
      {
        "text": "More fundamentally, the Director fails to explain how Trinity’s unilateral changes will",
        "paragraph_id": "para_518"
      },
      {
        "text": "harm employees in the first place. Trinity, for example, began implementing pay raises shortly",
        "paragraph_id": "para_519"
      },
      {
        "text": "after ditching the union. The Director rationalizes that development by suggesting that union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_520"
      },
      {
        "text": "employees generally get higher wages. But generalizations aside, it remains conceivable that",
        "paragraph_id": "para_521"
      },
      {
        "text": "employers like Trinity might offer a better or different combination of perks to forestall union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_522"
      },
      {
        "text": "intervention, leaving workers at least as well off as with a union. That reality only cements our",
        "paragraph_id": "para_523"
      },
      {
        "text": "decision to decline the Director’s invitation to infer irreparable harm in refusal to bargain cases.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_524"
      },
      {
        "text": "In reaching a different conclusion, the dissenting opinion sees the resolution here as",
        "paragraph_id": "para_525"
      },
      {
        "text": "entirely tied up in the district court’s findings of fact. Dissenting Op. at 29. True, we must",
        "paragraph_id": "para_526"
      },
      {
        "text": "accept the district court’s “factual findings” absent “clear error.” EOG Res., 134 F.4th at 874.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_527"
      },
      {
        "text": "But the district court did not render specific findings as to the Director’s affirmative evidence.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_528"
      },
      {
        "text": "See Trinity Health, 2024 WL 4579090, at *9. Likely because the district court made a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_529"
      },
      {
        "text": "“permissible inference” in the Director’s favor, the court made only brief mention of the meeting",
        "paragraph_id": "para_530"
      },
      {
        "text": "attendance data and witness affidavit, deeming them consistent with that inference. Id. At any",
        "paragraph_id": "para_531"
      },
      {
        "text": "rate, whether the Director has made a “clear showing” of “likely” irreparable harm is ultimately a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_532"
      },
      {
        "text": "legal yardstick, not a purely factual finding. See Starbucks, 144 S. Ct. at 1576 (citing Winter,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_533"
      },
      {
        "text": "555 U.S. at 20). Taking the Director’s evidence at face value, she has not met that heightened",
        "paragraph_id": "para_534"
      },
      {
        "text": "evidentiary threshold. Indeed, the dissenting opinion recognizes that “reasonable minds” could",
        "paragraph_id": "para_535"
      },
      {
        "text": "differ on much of the Director’s evidence. Dissenting Op. at 30. In short, because all agree that",
        "paragraph_id": "para_536"
      },
      {
        "text": "the record paints an unclear picture, the Director has not made a “clear showing” of irreparable",
        "paragraph_id": "para_537"
      },
      {
        "text": "harm. Starbucks, 144 S. Ct. at 1576.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_538"
      },
      {
        "text": "To recap: For the Director to have demonstrated irreparable harm, she needed to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_539"
      },
      {
        "text": "(1) specifically identify the injury threatened by the alleged unfair labor practice, (2) establish",
        "paragraph_id": "para_540"
      },
      {
        "text": "that the injury is likely to result absent an injunction, and (3) explain why the Board’s § 10(c)",
        "paragraph_id": "para_541"
      },
      {
        "text": "remedial powers could not fix the injury after the fact. And she must do so through more than",
        "paragraph_id": "para_542"
      },
      {
        "text": "mere speculation. See Hargett, 978 F.3d at 391. Because the Director has not completed each",
        "paragraph_id": "para_543"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 19",
        "paragraph_id": "para_544"
      },
      {
        "text": "leg of that legal triathlon, she has failed to make a “clear showing” of “likely . . . irreparable",
        "paragraph_id": "para_545"
      },
      {
        "text": "harm.” Starbucks, 144 S. Ct. at 1576.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_546"
      },
      {
        "text": "2. Were there any doubt on that score, the Director’s delay in seeking an injunction seals",
        "paragraph_id": "para_547"
      },
      {
        "text": "the deal. “An unreasonable delay in filing for injunctive relief will weigh against a finding of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_548"
      },
      {
        "text": "irreparable harm.” York Risk Servs. Grp., Inc. v. Couture, 787 F. App’x 301, 308 (6th Cir. 2019)",
        "paragraph_id": "para_549"
      },
      {
        "text": "(citing cases); see Cheetah Miner USA, Inc. v. 19200 Glendale, LLC, No. 23-1410, 2023 WL",
        "paragraph_id": "para_550"
      },
      {
        "text": "6601863, at *3 (6th Cir. Oct. 10, 2023) (Delay “undercuts the sense of urgency that ordinarily",
        "paragraph_id": "para_551"
      },
      {
        "text": "accompanies a motion for preliminary relief and suggests that there is, in fact, no irreparable",
        "paragraph_id": "para_552"
      },
      {
        "text": "injury.” (citation modified)). In some cases, even a few months’ delay in filing a § 10(j) petition",
        "paragraph_id": "para_553"
      },
      {
        "text": "can work against injunctive relief. See NLRB v. Hartman & Tyner, Inc., 714 F.3d 1244, 1249",
        "paragraph_id": "para_554"
      },
      {
        "text": "(11th Cir. 2013) (finding that a delay of “more than four months” was “further evidence”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_555"
      },
      {
        "text": "weighing against § 10(j) injunction); Boire v. Pilot Freight Carriers, Inc., 515 F.2d 1185, 1193",
        "paragraph_id": "para_556"
      },
      {
        "text": "(5th Cir. 1975) (emphasizing that “[t]he Board waited three months” before filing a § 10(j)",
        "paragraph_id": "para_557"
      },
      {
        "text": "petition).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_558"
      },
      {
        "text": "How long was the Director’s delay? The parties here dispute the answer. Trinity says",
        "paragraph_id": "para_559"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Director delayed seven months, starting from when Trinity first withdrew recognition. The",
        "paragraph_id": "para_560"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director, meanwhile, says she waited only four months, starting from when the Board issued the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_561"
      },
      {
        "text": "complaint against Trinity. Both are right, albeit in different ways. Section 10(j) did not allow",
        "paragraph_id": "para_562"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Director to petition for an injunction until the “issuance of [the] complaint” charging Trinity",
        "paragraph_id": "para_563"
      },
      {
        "text": "with an “unfair labor practice.” 29 U.S.C. § 160(j). And the charging and investigative process",
        "paragraph_id": "para_564"
      },
      {
        "text": "that resulted in the complaint no doubt took time. See id. § 160(b). So we accept the Director’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_565"
      },
      {
        "text": "four-month timeline. Be that as it may, Trinity represents that the Director informed the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_566"
      },
      {
        "text": "company as early as September 26, 2023, that she intended to seek an injunction. That the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_567"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director seems to have had designs on § 10(j) relief from the start makes her four-month delay",
        "paragraph_id": "para_568"
      },
      {
        "text": "harder to explain.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_569"
      },
      {
        "text": "The district court, for its part, did not decide which length of delay to credit, deciding",
        "paragraph_id": "para_570"
      },
      {
        "text": "instead that neither “conclusively augur[ed] against injunctive relief.” Trinity Health, 2024 WL",
        "paragraph_id": "para_571"
      },
      {
        "text": "4579090, at *9. Even if not dispositive, however, the Director’s delay undercuts the “sense of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_572"
      },
      {
        "text": "urgency” implied by the Director’s evidence and “suggests that there is, in fact, no irreparable",
        "paragraph_id": "para_573"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 20",
        "paragraph_id": "para_574"
      },
      {
        "text": "injury.” Cheetah Miner USA, Inc., 2023 WL 6601863, at *3. More than that, we also see the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_575"
      },
      {
        "text": "delay as “further evidence” that temporary relief will not add significant “marginal benefit”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_576"
      },
      {
        "text": "beyond “a final Board order.” Hartman & Tyner, 714 F.3d at 1252; see Boire, 515 F.2d at 1193",
        "paragraph_id": "para_577"
      },
      {
        "text": "(treating delay as “some evidence” that the employer’s unfair labor practices “have already taken",
        "paragraph_id": "para_578"
      },
      {
        "text": "their toll”). Here, the Director’s affirmative evidence of irreparable harm almost entirely",
        "paragraph_id": "para_579"
      },
      {
        "text": "concerns setbacks faced by the union before the petition was filed. And the Director’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_580"
      },
      {
        "text": "predictions for the future, as we have noted, are at best speculative. Taken together, these",
        "paragraph_id": "para_581"
      },
      {
        "text": "considerations indicate that most (if not all) of the damage to the union was inflicted in the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_582"
      },
      {
        "text": "months before the Director petitioned for an injunction. See Hartman & Tyner, 714 F.3d at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_583"
      },
      {
        "text": "1252. So the Director’s delay reinforces our conclusion that the § 10(j) petition flunks the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_584"
      },
      {
        "text": "demanding irreparable harm inquiry.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_585"
      },
      {
        "text": "* * *",
        "paragraph_id": "para_586"
      },
      {
        "text": "On the whole, the dissenting opinion faults our approach as setting too high a bar. See",
        "paragraph_id": "para_587"
      },
      {
        "text": "Dissenting Op. at 28. The Director, the dissenting opinion reasons, must act before any damage",
        "paragraph_id": "para_588"
      },
      {
        "text": "to the Board’s remedial powers “metastasizes.” Id. at 25. And because that “accelerated",
        "paragraph_id": "para_589"
      },
      {
        "text": "procedure . . . limits the available evidence,” “permissive inferences” are an “essential tool” for",
        "paragraph_id": "para_590"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Director to show that harm. Id. at 25, 28. But the difficulties to which the dissenting opinion",
        "paragraph_id": "para_591"
      },
      {
        "text": "alludes bedevil every party seeking a preliminary injunction, not just the Director. And",
        "paragraph_id": "para_592"
      },
      {
        "text": "Starbucks, at its core, held that the Board must carry the same burden as any other party. See",
        "paragraph_id": "para_593"
      },
      {
        "text": "144 S. Ct. at 1578–79. Although Congress could have lightened that burden, the fact remains",
        "paragraph_id": "para_594"
      },
      {
        "text": "that it did not. See id. at 1577. All in all, the Director’s failure to demonstrate the long-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_595"
      },
      {
        "text": "established elements of irreparable harm compels us to dissolve the injunction. See EOG Res.,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_596"
      },
      {
        "text": "134 F.4th at 884.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_597"
      },
      {
        "text": "Balance of equities and public interest. Though not necessary to today’s outcome, it",
        "paragraph_id": "para_598"
      },
      {
        "text": "deserves mention that the remaining injunction factors play a minor role in this case. In",
        "paragraph_id": "para_599"
      },
      {
        "text": "assessing the balance of the equities, courts go beyond the harm faced by the moving party and",
        "paragraph_id": "para_600"
      },
      {
        "text": "ask whether an injunction would harm the non-moving party even more. See EOG Res., 134",
        "paragraph_id": "para_601"
      },
      {
        "text": "F.4th at 885–86 (citing Winter, 555 U.S. at 24). The district court did not find convincing",
        "paragraph_id": "para_602"
      },
      {
        "text": "Trinity’s claimed “parade of horribles” should an injunction issue, and we agree. Trinity, 2024",
        "paragraph_id": "para_603"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 21",
        "paragraph_id": "para_604"
      },
      {
        "text": "WL 4579090, at *10. But as we find the Director’s theory of harm similarly unconvincing, the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_605"
      },
      {
        "text": "balance comes out essentially neutral.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_606"
      },
      {
        "text": "With respect to the public interest, the Director cites “industrial peace” and a desire to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_607"
      },
      {
        "text": "ensure that Trinity does not profit from its alleged wrongdoing as important policies. Appellee",
        "paragraph_id": "para_608"
      },
      {
        "text": "Br. 45–46. Trinity counters that Starbucks demands more than platitudes about labor justice.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_609"
      },
      {
        "text": "That appears to be true. See Starbucks, 144 S. Ct. at 1576 (requiring a “clear showing . . . that an",
        "paragraph_id": "para_610"
      },
      {
        "text": "injunction is in the public interest”). But even taking the Director’s points as given, we find that",
        "paragraph_id": "para_611"
      },
      {
        "text": "public interest does little work here. As the district court tacitly observed, the parties’ merits",
        "paragraph_id": "para_612"
      },
      {
        "text": "arguments largely subsume the public interest analysis. See Trinity Health, 2024 WL 4579090,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_613"
      },
      {
        "text": "at *11. After all, if Trinity was right to honor the disaffection petition as a true expression of its",
        "paragraph_id": "para_614"
      },
      {
        "text": "employees’ wishes, then Trinity’s actions harm neither “industrial peace” nor the Board’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_615"
      },
      {
        "text": "remedial authority. Just the opposite, in fact: Employees’ right to remove a union they do not",
        "paragraph_id": "para_616"
      },
      {
        "text": "want stands on equal footing with their right to keep a union they do want. See 29 U.S.C. § 157",
        "paragraph_id": "para_617"
      },
      {
        "text": "(protecting “the right to refrain” from union activity).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_618"
      },
      {
        "text": "* * * * *",
        "paragraph_id": "para_619"
      },
      {
        "text": "We reverse the district court and vacate its order granting the injunction under 29 U.S.C.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_620"
      },
      {
        "text": "§ 160(j).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_621"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 22",
        "paragraph_id": "para_622"
      },
      {
        "text": "_________________",
        "paragraph_id": "para_623"
      },
      {
        "text": "DISSENT",
        "paragraph_id": "para_624"
      },
      {
        "text": "_________________",
        "paragraph_id": "para_625"
      },
      {
        "text": "BOGGS, Circuit Judge, dissenting. I agree that the Director has demonstrated a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_626"
      },
      {
        "text": "likelihood of success on the merits, but would go further and affirm the injunction because she",
        "paragraph_id": "para_627"
      },
      {
        "text": "has made the required showing on all of the Winter factors. I particularly disagree with the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_628"
      },
      {
        "text": "majority’s approach for assessing irreparable harm, which mischaracterizes permissive",
        "paragraph_id": "para_629"
      },
      {
        "text": "inferences as mandatory presumptions.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_630"
      },
      {
        "text": "Starbucks made headlines in our court, but it was old news for many of our peers. The",
        "paragraph_id": "para_631"
      },
      {
        "text": "Fourth, Seventh, Eighth, and Ninth Circuits have long applied the traditional four-factor",
        "paragraph_id": "para_632"
      },
      {
        "text": "preliminary-injunction test to § 10(j) petitions. The Fourth and Ninth Circuits in particular offer",
        "paragraph_id": "para_633"
      },
      {
        "text": "compelling guidance for assessing irreparable harm in this setting. Those courts have rightly",
        "paragraph_id": "para_634"
      },
      {
        "text": "rejected categorical or irreputable presumptions that a likely labor-law violation necessarily",
        "paragraph_id": "para_635"
      },
      {
        "text": "creates a risk of irreparable harm. But they did not prohibit district courts from drawing",
        "paragraph_id": "para_636"
      },
      {
        "text": "permissive inferences about the likely harm to the Board’s remedial powers based on specific",
        "paragraph_id": "para_637"
      },
      {
        "text": "factual findings, entitled to deference, about the observed and likely effects of challenged labor",
        "paragraph_id": "para_638"
      },
      {
        "text": "practices. Indeed, the Ninth Circuit expressly approved that approach, as has our own court in",
        "paragraph_id": "para_639"
      },
      {
        "text": "other legal contexts. The majority’s reasoning breaks with the well-reasoned approach of our",
        "paragraph_id": "para_640"
      },
      {
        "text": "peers, however, leading me to respectfully dissent.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_641"
      },
      {
        "text": "I",
        "paragraph_id": "para_642"
      },
      {
        "text": "A",
        "paragraph_id": "para_643"
      },
      {
        "text": "To obtain a preliminary injunction, a plaintiff “must establish that he is likely to succeed",
        "paragraph_id": "para_644"
      },
      {
        "text": "on the merits, that he is likely to suffer irreparable harm in the absence of preliminary relief, that",
        "paragraph_id": "para_645"
      },
      {
        "text": "the balance of equities tips in his favor, and that an injunction is in the public interest.” Winter v.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_646"
      },
      {
        "text": "Nat. Res. Def. Council, Inc., 555 U.S. 7, 20 (2008). Congress has authorized the Board to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_647"
      },
      {
        "text": "petition a district court for a preliminary injunction (known as a “§ 10(j) petition”) to enjoin an",
        "paragraph_id": "para_648"
      },
      {
        "text": "alleged unfair-labor practice pending the Board’s resolution of the unfair-labor-practice claims",
        "paragraph_id": "para_649"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 23",
        "paragraph_id": "para_650"
      },
      {
        "text": "and ultimate judicial enforcement of the Board’s order. 29 U.S.C. § 160(j). The Board’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_651"
      },
      {
        "text": "regional directors—Kerwin, in this case—typically file the petition.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_652"
      },
      {
        "text": "At least four of our peer circuits have long reviewed § 10(j) petitions under the same",
        "paragraph_id": "para_653"
      },
      {
        "text": "four-factor test applicable to all preliminary-injunction requests. Muffley v. Spartan Mining Co.,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_654"
      },
      {
        "text": "570 F.3d 534, 542–43 (4th Cir. 2009); Bloedorn v. Francisco Foods, Inc., 276 F.3d 270, 286 (7th",
        "paragraph_id": "para_655"
      },
      {
        "text": "Cir. 2001); McKinney v. Southern Bakeries, LLC, 786 F.3d 1119, 1122–23 (8th Cir. 2015);",
        "paragraph_id": "para_656"
      },
      {
        "text": "Frankl v. HTH Corp., 650 F.3d 1334, 1362 (9th Cir. 2011). Until recently, however, we",
        "paragraph_id": "para_657"
      },
      {
        "text": "deviated from that approach by applying a diluted two-factor test that asked merely whether",
        "paragraph_id": "para_658"
      },
      {
        "text": "“‘there is reasonable cause to believe that unfair labor practices have occurred,’ and whether",
        "paragraph_id": "para_659"
      },
      {
        "text": "injunctive relief is ‘just and proper.’” Starbucks Corp. v. McKinney, 602 U.S. 339, 344 (2024)",
        "paragraph_id": "para_660"
      },
      {
        "text": "(quoting McKinney v. Ozburn-Hessey Logistics, LLC, 875 F.3d 333, 339 (6th Cir. 2017)). Our",
        "paragraph_id": "para_661"
      },
      {
        "text": "reasonable-cause standard was wrong. Finding that nothing in § 160(j)’s text “jettison[s] the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_662"
      },
      {
        "text": "normal equitable rules” of preliminary injunctions, the Supreme Court instructed us to “apply the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_663"
      },
      {
        "text": "Winter framework” to § 10(j) petitions instead. Id. at 347–48 (citation modified).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_664"
      },
      {
        "text": "Starbucks overruled our § 10(j) precedents, but it did not leave a blank slate. Nothing in",
        "paragraph_id": "para_665"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Court’s opinion disturbed our application of Winter in other contexts, nor did it question how",
        "paragraph_id": "para_666"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Fourth, Seventh, Eighth, and Ninth Circuits have applied Winter to § 10(j) petitions. See",
        "paragraph_id": "para_667"
      },
      {
        "text": "Poor v. Parking Sys. Plus, Inc., 162 F.4th 335, 351 (2d Cir. 2025) (noting, in applying Winter to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_668"
      },
      {
        "text": "a § 10(j) petition for the first time, that Starbucks “did not disturb our precedents’ reasoning as to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_669"
      },
      {
        "text": "what constitutes harm justifying a grant of equitable relief”). So we retain the benefit of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_670"
      },
      {
        "text": "extensive authority from our own court and our peers to review the preliminary injunction issued",
        "paragraph_id": "para_671"
      },
      {
        "text": "below.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_672"
      },
      {
        "text": "B",
        "paragraph_id": "para_673"
      },
      {
        "text": "Unquestionably, the Director must demonstrate a likelihood of irreparable harm no matter",
        "paragraph_id": "para_674"
      },
      {
        "text": "the strength of her likelihood of success on the merits. Kentucky v. Biden, 57 F.4th 545, 555 (6th",
        "paragraph_id": "para_675"
      },
      {
        "text": "Cir. 2023). As the majority observes, irreparable harm in the § 10(j) context refers to harm to the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_676"
      },
      {
        "text": "Board’s remedial powers. Maj. Op. at 12; Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1362 (quoting Small v. Operative",
        "paragraph_id": "para_677"
      },
      {
        "text": "Plasterers’ and Cement Masons’ Int’l Ass’n, Local 200, 611 F.3d 483, 494 (9th Cir. 2010))",
        "paragraph_id": "para_678"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 24",
        "paragraph_id": "para_679"
      },
      {
        "text": "(“permit[ting an] alleged unfair labor practice to reach fruition and thereby render meaningless",
        "paragraph_id": "para_680"
      },
      {
        "text": "the Board’s remedial authority is irreparable harm” (alteration in original)). My disagreement",
        "paragraph_id": "para_681"
      },
      {
        "text": "centers on the propriety of the logical framework that the district court used to reach its",
        "paragraph_id": "para_682"
      },
      {
        "text": "irreparable-harm conclusion. The majority faults the district court for relying on a presumption",
        "paragraph_id": "para_683"
      },
      {
        "text": "that because Trinity likely committed an unfair-labor practice, irreparable harm would inevitably",
        "paragraph_id": "para_684"
      },
      {
        "text": "result. Maj. Op. at 13–15. But that is not how the district court reasoned. Rather, it found",
        "paragraph_id": "para_685"
      },
      {
        "text": "specific facts showing that Trinity’s actions had already diminished union support and altered",
        "paragraph_id": "para_686"
      },
      {
        "text": "the parties’ bargaining positions, and inferred from those facts that, absent preliminary relief, the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_687"
      },
      {
        "text": "union’s position would continue to weaken, such that a final order restoring union recognition",
        "paragraph_id": "para_688"
      },
      {
        "text": "would prove futile. These permissive inferences, unlike mandatory presumptions, comport with",
        "paragraph_id": "para_689"
      },
      {
        "text": "Winter.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_690"
      },
      {
        "text": "The Board’s remedial powers are fragile. Its core remedy for an unlawful withdrawal of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_691"
      },
      {
        "text": "union recognition is an order directing the employer to engage in good-faith collective",
        "paragraph_id": "para_692"
      },
      {
        "text": "bargaining with the union. See Muffley, 570 F.3d at 544. But the effectiveness of that final",
        "paragraph_id": "para_693"
      },
      {
        "text": "remedy depends on the resilience of union support and the original bargaining positions of the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_694"
      },
      {
        "text": "union and employer. Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1362–63. If a union is “weakened in the interim”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_695"
      },
      {
        "text": "between the inception of an alleged unfair-labor practice and the resolution of unfair-labor-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_696"
      },
      {
        "text": "practice claims, “it will be difficult to recreate the original status quo with the same relative",
        "paragraph_id": "para_697"
      },
      {
        "text": "position of the bargaining parties.” Id. at 1363. And the bargaining process may fail altogether",
        "paragraph_id": "para_698"
      },
      {
        "text": "if the employer suppresses union support to the point that the workforce is no longer “inclined to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_699"
      },
      {
        "text": "unionize.” Poor, 162 F.4th at 352 (citation modified); see also Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1362–63. So,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_700"
      },
      {
        "text": "when the Director demonstrates a likelihood that an employer’s unlawful conduct will diminish",
        "paragraph_id": "para_701"
      },
      {
        "text": "union support below a critical level, preliminary injunctive relief is appropriate “to preserve the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_702"
      },
      {
        "text": "relative positions of the parties” during litigation. Starbucks, 602 U.S. at 346 (quoting Univ. of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_703"
      },
      {
        "text": "Tex. v. Camenisch, 451 U.S. 390, 395 (1981)). The district court permissibly found that the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_704"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director made that showing here.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_705"
      },
      {
        "text": "A district court’s task in recognizing when to preserve the status quo often places it in a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_706"
      },
      {
        "text": "Catch-22. On the one hand, as the majority emphasizes, the requirement that a plaintiff make a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_707"
      },
      {
        "text": "“clear showing” that he is likely to suffer irreparable harm, id. at 345, necessitates an injury that",
        "paragraph_id": "para_708"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 25",
        "paragraph_id": "para_709"
      },
      {
        "text": "is “certain and immediate, not speculative or theoretical,” so a plaintiff cannot move too soon,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_710"
      },
      {
        "text": "D.T. v. Sumner Cnty. Schls., 942 F.3d 324, 327 (6th Cir. 2019) (citation modified). On the other",
        "paragraph_id": "para_711"
      },
      {
        "text": "hand, plaintiffs fearing irreparable harm cannot wait too long, otherwise they will forfeit their",
        "paragraph_id": "para_712"
      },
      {
        "text": "claim to equitable relief through delay or obtain an injunction too late to reverse the damage.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_713"
      },
      {
        "text": "Churchill Downs Tech. Initiatives Co. v. Mich. Gaming Control Bd., 162 F.4th 631, 642–43 (6th",
        "paragraph_id": "para_714"
      },
      {
        "text": "Cir. 2025) (describing the “Goldilocks zone” in which a request for a preliminary injunction is",
        "paragraph_id": "para_715"
      },
      {
        "text": "neither too speculative nor too late); Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1362–63 (recognizing the futility of the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_716"
      },
      {
        "text": "Board’s remedial powers if the detrimental effect of an unfair-labor practice is allowed to reach",
        "paragraph_id": "para_717"
      },
      {
        "text": "fruition). A preliminary injunction holds no value if irreparable harm has already occurred—",
        "paragraph_id": "para_718"
      },
      {
        "text": "otherwise, “[w]hy preserve a worthless option?” Samuel L. Bray, The Purpose of the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_719"
      },
      {
        "text": "Preliminary Injunction, 78 Vand. L. Rev. 809, 825 (2025) (explaining that “[t]he preliminary",
        "paragraph_id": "para_720"
      },
      {
        "text": "injunction protects the possibility of the final injunction”). “Judges are not engaged in a zero-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_721"
      },
      {
        "text": "tolerance prevention of all costs to the plaintiff,” id. at 854, but a polyp that threatens the Board’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_722"
      },
      {
        "text": "remedial powers can be addressed before it metastasizes. Complicating the district court’s task",
        "paragraph_id": "para_723"
      },
      {
        "text": "here is the reality that it will never know exactly when a mere likelihood of irreparable harm",
        "paragraph_id": "para_724"
      },
      {
        "text": "crosses the threshold into reality. Such harms are often immeasurable, and the accelerated",
        "paragraph_id": "para_725"
      },
      {
        "text": "procedure for preliminary injunctions limits the available evidence. Id. at 821–26.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_726"
      },
      {
        "text": "These considerations have prompted courts to develop analytical frameworks to navigate",
        "paragraph_id": "para_727"
      },
      {
        "text": "this uncertainty while preserving the extraordinary and discretionary nature of the preliminary",
        "paragraph_id": "para_728"
      },
      {
        "text": "injunction. Circuit courts with a long history of reviewing § 10(j) petitions under Winter have",
        "paragraph_id": "para_729"
      },
      {
        "text": "rightly rejected mandatory, irrebuttable, or categorical presumptions that impute irreparable harm",
        "paragraph_id": "para_730"
      },
      {
        "text": "from the mere likelihood of an unfair-labor practice. They permit, however, district courts to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_731"
      },
      {
        "text": "infer that the Board will likely suffer irreparable harm provided that the facts indicate that the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_732"
      },
      {
        "text": "alleged unfair labor practices have already depressed union support and altered the parties’",
        "paragraph_id": "para_733"
      },
      {
        "text": "relative bargaining positions. That is precisely how the district court proceeded here.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_734"
      },
      {
        "text": "A sequence of Ninth Circuit cases illustrates the distinction between (prohibited)",
        "paragraph_id": "para_735"
      },
      {
        "text": "mandatory presumptions and (acceptable) permissive inferences. In 2011, that court affirmed a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_736"
      },
      {
        "text": "§ 10(j) injunction stemming from an employer’s alleged unlawful withdrawal of union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_737"
      },
      {
        "text": "recognition and failure to bargain in good faith. Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1358–61. Explaining the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_738"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 26",
        "paragraph_id": "para_739"
      },
      {
        "text": "relationship between the likelihood-of-success and irreparable-harm inquiries, the Ninth Circuit",
        "paragraph_id": "para_740"
      },
      {
        "text": "recognized that the “same evidence and legal conclusions, along with permissible inferences",
        "paragraph_id": "para_741"
      },
      {
        "text": "regarding the likely interim and long-run impact of the unfair labor practices that were likely to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_742"
      },
      {
        "text": "be found, preclude the conclusion that the District Court abused its discretion in finding a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_743"
      },
      {
        "text": "likelihood of irreparable harm.” Id. at 1363. The district court could infer that an extended",
        "paragraph_id": "para_744"
      },
      {
        "text": "exclusion of the union from collective-bargaining negotiations would likely irreparably harm the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_745"
      },
      {
        "text": "Board’s remedial powers by depressing union support and distorting the parties’ bargaining",
        "paragraph_id": "para_746"
      },
      {
        "text": "positions. See id. at 1362–63.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_747"
      },
      {
        "text": "A decade later, the court clarified Frankl after some district judges read it to permit a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_748"
      },
      {
        "text": "finding of irreparable harm whenever the Director demonstrated a likelihood of success on the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_749"
      },
      {
        "text": "merits, even if the district court found no factual evidence supporting a risk of irreparable harm.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_750"
      },
      {
        "text": "Hooks v. Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc., 54 F.4th 1101, 1118 (9th Cir. 2022). As in Frankl and our",
        "paragraph_id": "para_751"
      },
      {
        "text": "case, Hooks involved allegations of an unlawful withdrawal of union recognition. Id. at 1108–",
        "paragraph_id": "para_752"
      },
      {
        "text": "09. The Director requested a § 10(j) injunction and attempted to demonstrate a likelihood of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_753"
      },
      {
        "text": "irreparable harm through a loss of union support. Id. at 1110. When the district court",
        "paragraph_id": "para_754"
      },
      {
        "text": "specifically asked “for evidence that employee support for the union was dwindling,” the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_755"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director mustered just one piece of evidence: testimony from a union representative that pro-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_756"
      },
      {
        "text": "union employees feared retaliation. Ibid. But the district court found this evidence",
        "paragraph_id": "para_757"
      },
      {
        "text": "unpersuasive, likely because even “in the face of alleged anti-union intimidation efforts,” the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_758"
      },
      {
        "text": "union “stated that it collected signatures” from a majority of the relevant employees “for a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_759"
      },
      {
        "text": "petition supporting the union.” Id. at 1108. Nevertheless, despite the district court’s finding that",
        "paragraph_id": "para_760"
      },
      {
        "text": "the record “contained no factual evidence of irreparable harm,” it felt bound to “apply the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_761"
      },
      {
        "text": "inference stated in Frankl” to find a likelihood of irreparable harm. Id. at 1110–11.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_762"
      },
      {
        "text": "The Ninth Circuit vacated the injunction because the district court failed to differentiate",
        "paragraph_id": "para_763"
      },
      {
        "text": "“between an impermissible presumption of irreparable harm when the Regional Director is likely",
        "paragraph_id": "para_764"
      },
      {
        "text": "to succeed . . . and a ‘permissible inference[] regarding the likely effects of that violation.’” Id.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_765"
      },
      {
        "text": "at 1116 (quoting Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1363). District judges cannot rely on presumptions of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_766"
      },
      {
        "text": "irreparable harm merely because the Director will likely succeed in proving a labor-law",
        "paragraph_id": "para_767"
      },
      {
        "text": "violation, because injunctive relief “must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis in accord with",
        "paragraph_id": "para_768"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 27",
        "paragraph_id": "para_769"
      },
      {
        "text": "traditional equitable principles and without the aid of presumptions or a ‘thumb on the scale’ in",
        "paragraph_id": "para_770"
      },
      {
        "text": "favor of issuing such relief.” Id. at 1114 (quoting Monsanto Co. v. Geertson Seed Farms, 561",
        "paragraph_id": "para_771"
      },
      {
        "text": "U.S. 139, 157 (2010)). But in contrast to a mandatory presumption, which inappropriately",
        "paragraph_id": "para_772"
      },
      {
        "text": "relieves the party requesting the injunction of the burden of proof, a “permissive inference”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_773"
      },
      {
        "text": "merely permits, but never compels, judges to reach conclusions supported by proven “predicate",
        "paragraph_id": "para_774"
      },
      {
        "text": "facts.” Id. at 1116 (quoting Francis v. Franklin, 471 U.S. 307, 314 (1985)). A permissive",
        "paragraph_id": "para_775"
      },
      {
        "text": "inference neither places a thumb on the scale nor reassigns the burden of proof; it simply allows",
        "paragraph_id": "para_776"
      },
      {
        "text": "a judge to use normal reasoning skills and common sense. And the judge “may rely on the same",
        "paragraph_id": "para_777"
      },
      {
        "text": "evidence . . . used to demonstrate a likelihood of success on the merits because some evidence",
        "paragraph_id": "para_778"
      },
      {
        "text": "may have probative value for both inquiries.” Id. at 1117.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_779"
      },
      {
        "text": "The Fourth Circuit has held similarly, barring the use of mandatory presumptions without",
        "paragraph_id": "para_780"
      },
      {
        "text": "prejudicing the use of permissive inferences. See Henderson v. Bluefield Hospital Co., LLC, 902",
        "paragraph_id": "para_781"
      },
      {
        "text": "F.3d 432, 441–42 (4th Cir. 2018). There, the district court denied the NLRB’s § 10(j) petition,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_782"
      },
      {
        "text": "concluding that the Director had failed to demonstrate a likelihood of irreparable harm because",
        "paragraph_id": "para_783"
      },
      {
        "text": "the evidence showed “consistent commitment” to the union and substantial union activity even",
        "paragraph_id": "para_784"
      },
      {
        "text": "while the employer refused to engage in collective bargaining. Id. at 437. On appeal, the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_785"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director claimed that the district court “erred in refusing to infer harm from the nature of the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_786"
      },
      {
        "text": "violations.” Id. at 438. As in the Ninth Circuit, the Fourth Circuit rejected a categorical",
        "paragraph_id": "para_787"
      },
      {
        "text": "presumption that would require a finding of irreparable harm whenever the Director",
        "paragraph_id": "para_788"
      },
      {
        "text": "demonstrates a likelihood of success on the merits. Id. at 441. But because the record revealed",
        "paragraph_id": "para_789"
      },
      {
        "text": "minimal, if any, diminution in union support, Henderson did not restrict district courts’",
        "paragraph_id": "para_790"
      },
      {
        "text": "discretion to draw permissive inferences based on different facts in different cases. See id. at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_791"
      },
      {
        "text": "441–42.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_792"
      },
      {
        "text": "Applying Winter in other settings, our court has also approved permissive inferences as",
        "paragraph_id": "para_793"
      },
      {
        "text": "opposed to mandatory presumptions. Affirming a preliminary injunction in a copyright case, we",
        "paragraph_id": "para_794"
      },
      {
        "text": "found no problem with a district court projecting that the plaintiff would likely suffer irreparable",
        "paragraph_id": "para_795"
      },
      {
        "text": "harm based on infringement that had already occurred. ACT, Inc. v. Worldwide Interactive",
        "paragraph_id": "para_796"
      },
      {
        "text": "Network, Inc., 46 F.4th 489, 503–04 (6th Cir. 2022) (Bush, J.). The established fact that a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_797"
      },
      {
        "text": "copyright infringer had already used infringing materials to compete with the plaintiff",
        "paragraph_id": "para_798"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 28",
        "paragraph_id": "para_799"
      },
      {
        "text": "demonstrated a likelihood of irreparable harm because it “suggest[ed] that [the infringer] will",
        "paragraph_id": "para_800"
      },
      {
        "text": "continue harming [the plaintiff’s] reputation, diminishing the perceived value of [the plaintiff’s]",
        "paragraph_id": "para_801"
      },
      {
        "text": "intellectual property, and unfairly competing with [the plaintiff].” Id. at 503. Similarly, Trinity",
        "paragraph_id": "para_802"
      },
      {
        "text": "has demonstrated a “history” of harming the union and makes no secret about its “stated desire”",
        "paragraph_id": "para_803"
      },
      {
        "text": "to end its reluctant relationship with the union as soon as the injunction dissolves, which will",
        "paragraph_id": "para_804"
      },
      {
        "text": "further damage union support. Id. at 503–04; see Appellant Br. 44–45. The combination of past",
        "paragraph_id": "para_805"
      },
      {
        "text": "harm plus a credible threat of future harm supported injunctive relief in ACT, and it should here",
        "paragraph_id": "para_806"
      },
      {
        "text": "too, because the Director has provided independent evidence of unfair-labor practices and",
        "paragraph_id": "para_807"
      },
      {
        "text": "diminution to union support.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_808"
      },
      {
        "text": "Collectively, these cases rightly rejected the use of mandatory presumptions that collapse",
        "paragraph_id": "para_809"
      },
      {
        "text": "the likelihood-of-success-on-the-merits and irreparable-harm inquiries. Left unchecked,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_810"
      },
      {
        "text": "mandatory presumptions would make preliminary injunctions in this context automatic rather",
        "paragraph_id": "para_811"
      },
      {
        "text": "than discretionary, frequent rather than extraordinary, and merits-focused rather than remedy-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_812"
      },
      {
        "text": "centric. See Henderson, 902 F.3d at 440–41; Bray, supra, 827–34. But these cases also",
        "paragraph_id": "para_813"
      },
      {
        "text": "correctly allowed district courts to draw inferences about the future based on the facts describing",
        "paragraph_id": "para_814"
      },
      {
        "text": "the present. See ACT, 46 F.4th at 503–04; Hooks, 54 F.4th at 1116. Today, the majority rejects",
        "paragraph_id": "para_815"
      },
      {
        "text": "that approach for evaluating the Director’s request for injunctive relief. This is a mistake:",
        "paragraph_id": "para_816"
      },
      {
        "text": "barring district courts from employing permissive inferences will needlessly cramp their",
        "paragraph_id": "para_817"
      },
      {
        "text": "discretion and deny them an essential tool to reconcile often-limited evidence in the preliminary-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_818"
      },
      {
        "text": "injunction context. And it will undermine the Board’s remedial powers by allowing unfair-labor",
        "paragraph_id": "para_819"
      },
      {
        "text": "practices to break union support while litigation crawls ahead. The Board is certainly not",
        "paragraph_id": "para_820"
      },
      {
        "text": "entitled to special treatment, see Maj. Op. at 16, but neither should we disadvantage it relative to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_821"
      },
      {
        "text": "other litigants, see ACT, 46 F.4th at 503–04.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_822"
      },
      {
        "text": "The district court followed this approach, applying the correct legal standard because it",
        "paragraph_id": "para_823"
      },
      {
        "text": "employed a permissive inference rather than a mandatory presumption. It expressly refrained",
        "paragraph_id": "para_824"
      },
      {
        "text": "from assuming irreparable harm from the Director’s likelihood of success on the merits, and it",
        "paragraph_id": "para_825"
      },
      {
        "text": "rightly assigned to her the burden of obtaining relief. R. 68 at 17–19, PageID 3244–46. True,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_826"
      },
      {
        "text": "the court recognized that some of the same evidence relevant to the likelihood-of-success",
        "paragraph_id": "para_827"
      },
      {
        "text": "determination, such as evidence of the hospital’s failure to bargain in good faith, could bear on",
        "paragraph_id": "para_828"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 29",
        "paragraph_id": "para_829"
      },
      {
        "text": "the likelihood that union support would deteriorate substantially while litigation proceeds,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_830"
      },
      {
        "text": "risking irreparable harm to the Board’s remedial powers. But the district court also consulted",
        "paragraph_id": "para_831"
      },
      {
        "text": "evidence that it had not considered in its likelihood-of-success analysis, such as data indicating a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_832"
      },
      {
        "text": "decrease in attendance at union meetings after the hospital withdrew recognition and an affidavit",
        "paragraph_id": "para_833"
      },
      {
        "text": "describing specific examples of how the withdrawal of recognition chilled union activity. This",
        "paragraph_id": "para_834"
      },
      {
        "text": "evidence, not any abstract assumption, formed the basis of the district court’s “permissible",
        "paragraph_id": "para_835"
      },
      {
        "text": "inference.” R. 68 at 18, PageID 3245. Reasonable minds may debate the strength of the factual",
        "paragraph_id": "para_836"
      },
      {
        "text": "predicates for the district court’s inferences, as I will address shortly, but the district court",
        "paragraph_id": "para_837"
      },
      {
        "text": "undoubtedly avoided the legal error of presuming a likelihood of irreparable harm despite the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_838"
      },
      {
        "text": "absence of any record evidence showing such a risk. Hooks, 54 F.4th at 1110–11, 1116–17.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_839"
      },
      {
        "text": "As other circuits have approved in reviewing § 10(j) petitions, and applying reasoning we",
        "paragraph_id": "para_840"
      },
      {
        "text": "have approved in other settings, the district court found facts indicating that harm to the Board’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_841"
      },
      {
        "text": "remedial powers had started to accumulate, and inferred that such harm would become",
        "paragraph_id": "para_842"
      },
      {
        "text": "irreparable without preliminary relief. I would continue to allow permissive inferences in the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_843"
      },
      {
        "text": "§ 10(j) context to avoid creating conflict between the circuits and within our own court.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_844"
      },
      {
        "text": "C",
        "paragraph_id": "para_845"
      },
      {
        "text": "Perhaps the majority’s core rationale for reversal lies not in the district court’s usage of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_846"
      },
      {
        "text": "permissive inferences per se, but rather in the facts supporting its inferences. Clearly, the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_847"
      },
      {
        "text": "majority disagrees with the district court’s assessment of the facts indicating that the hospital’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_848"
      },
      {
        "text": "withdrawal of recognition diminished the union’s support and bargaining position. Maj. Op. at",
        "paragraph_id": "para_849"
      },
      {
        "text": "16–18. But we owe great deference to the district court’s factual findings. In conducting our",
        "paragraph_id": "para_850"
      },
      {
        "text": "“highly deferential” assessment of whether the district court abused its discretion in granting the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_851"
      },
      {
        "text": "preliminary injunction, we review its factual findings for clear error. Churchill Downs, 162",
        "paragraph_id": "para_852"
      },
      {
        "text": "F.4th at 637 (quoting Certified Restoration Dry Cleaning Network, LLC v. Tenke Corp., 511 F.3d",
        "paragraph_id": "para_853"
      },
      {
        "text": "535, 541 (6th Cir. 2007)). “A finding is ‘clearly erroneous’ when, although there is evidence to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_854"
      },
      {
        "text": "support it, the reviewing court on the entire evidence is left with the definite and firm conviction",
        "paragraph_id": "para_855"
      },
      {
        "text": "that a mistake has been committed.” Certified Restoration, 511 F.3d at 541 (quoting Anderson v.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_856"
      },
      {
        "text": "City of Bessemer City, 470 U.S. 564, 573 (1985)).",
        "paragraph_id": "para_857"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 30",
        "paragraph_id": "para_858"
      },
      {
        "text": "The district court did not clearly err in finding that Kerwin made an adequate showing of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_859"
      },
      {
        "text": "irreparable harm because the facts indicate that union support had meaningfully declined,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_860"
      },
      {
        "text": "permitting an inference of continued deterioration absent preliminary relief. In addition to citing",
        "paragraph_id": "para_861"
      },
      {
        "text": "the hospital’s failure to bargain in good faith with the union, the district court found a likelihood",
        "paragraph_id": "para_862"
      },
      {
        "text": "of irreparable harm based on a decline in attendance at union meetings and an affidavit from",
        "paragraph_id": "para_863"
      },
      {
        "text": "Ricky Kauffman, a union member who became the bargaining-unit president in November 2023,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_864"
      },
      {
        "text": "that described the effects of the hospital’s withdrawal of recognition. R. 68 at 18, PageID 3245.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_865"
      },
      {
        "text": "I agree with the majority to the extent that reasonable minds could draw different conclusions in",
        "paragraph_id": "para_866"
      },
      {
        "text": "the first instance from the union-attendance data and the affidavit. But if reasonable minds could",
        "paragraph_id": "para_867"
      },
      {
        "text": "differ, then the district court did not clearly err in assessing that union support had declined. See",
        "paragraph_id": "para_868"
      },
      {
        "text": "Certified Restoration, 511 F.3d at 541. The district court made reasonable findings from",
        "paragraph_id": "para_869"
      },
      {
        "text": "uncontroverted evidence, and additional facts in the record support its conclusions. Applying an",
        "paragraph_id": "para_870"
      },
      {
        "text": "appropriate legal standard to analyze these facts, the district court did not abuse its discretion in",
        "paragraph_id": "para_871"
      },
      {
        "text": "concluding that Kerwin clearly showed that the Board will likely suffer irreparable harm without",
        "paragraph_id": "para_872"
      },
      {
        "text": "this injunction.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_873"
      },
      {
        "text": "Considering the evidence in turn, the district court did not clearly err in finding that the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_874"
      },
      {
        "text": "attendance data indicates a loss of union support. The record reports attendance at nine union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_875"
      },
      {
        "text": "meetings, conducted virtually, from August 2023 through March 2024. R. 2-15, PageID 162.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_876"
      },
      {
        "text": "Six of those meetings preceded the hospital’s withdrawal of recognition. Those meetings were",
        "paragraph_id": "para_877"
      },
      {
        "text": "attended by 23, 24, 30, 29, 16, and 9 union members (the last of these, held on September 21,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_878"
      },
      {
        "text": "2023, occurred after the decertification election but before the hospital’s withdrawal of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_879"
      },
      {
        "text": "recognition). The other three meetings followed the hospital’s withdrawal of recognition. On",
        "paragraph_id": "para_880"
      },
      {
        "text": "October 3, 2023, roughly a week after the withdrawal of recognition, 23 members attended. On",
        "paragraph_id": "para_881"
      },
      {
        "text": "October 25, 2023, only a month after the withdrawal of recognition, attendance dropped sharply",
        "paragraph_id": "para_882"
      },
      {
        "text": "to 11. The final meeting, held on March 4, 2024, had only 8 attendees.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_883"
      },
      {
        "text": "Perhaps, if I were a district judge, I might find this data insufficient to conclude that",
        "paragraph_id": "para_884"
      },
      {
        "text": "union support had begun to waver. But as an appellate judge owing deference on matters of fact,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_885"
      },
      {
        "text": "I cannot conclude that the district court clearly erred, given that the post-withdrawal meetings",
        "paragraph_id": "para_886"
      },
      {
        "text": "had, on average, just two-thirds the attendance of the pre-withdrawal meetings (14 compared to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_887"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 31",
        "paragraph_id": "para_888"
      },
      {
        "text": "21.83) and that two of the three lowest-attended meetings occurred post-withdrawal. The",
        "paragraph_id": "para_889"
      },
      {
        "text": "majority, however, perceives a different trendline. It emphasizes the low attendance at the last",
        "paragraph_id": "para_890"
      },
      {
        "text": "meeting before withdrawal (9 members on September 21) and high attendance at the first",
        "paragraph_id": "para_891"
      },
      {
        "text": "meeting after withdrawal (23 members on October 3) to discount the Director’s evidence. Maj.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_892"
      },
      {
        "text": "Op. at 16. But the majority’s second-guessing ignores those meetings’ contexts. The September",
        "paragraph_id": "para_893"
      },
      {
        "text": "21 meeting occurred after voting concluded in the decertification election, but before the tally",
        "paragraph_id": "para_894"
      },
      {
        "text": "was revealed or the hospital withdrew recognition. Set amidst that holding pattern, there was",
        "paragraph_id": "para_895"
      },
      {
        "text": "probably not much business to conduct or reason to attend. In contrast, more union members",
        "paragraph_id": "para_896"
      },
      {
        "text": "understandably flocked to the October 3 meeting to reckon with the immediate implications of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_897"
      },
      {
        "text": "the hospital’s withdrawal of recognition. The majority attributes more weight to those two data",
        "paragraph_id": "para_898"
      },
      {
        "text": "points than their unique circumstances can bear. Far more instructive, in my mind, is the fact",
        "paragraph_id": "para_899"
      },
      {
        "text": "that attendance had precipitously diminished by October 25, after the election dust settled but",
        "paragraph_id": "para_900"
      },
      {
        "text": "still within a month of Trinity’s withdrawal of recognition, and never recovered.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_901"
      },
      {
        "text": "Kauffman’s affidavit also supports the district court’s permissive inference. His affidavit",
        "paragraph_id": "para_902"
      },
      {
        "text": "describes how the hospital’s withdrawal of recognition and refusal to bargain with the union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_903"
      },
      {
        "text": "chilled union participation. R. 2-16 at 2–3, PageID 164–65. He explains that a fellow",
        "paragraph_id": "para_904"
      },
      {
        "text": "bargaining-committee member resigned her leadership position “because she felt like it was",
        "paragraph_id": "para_905"
      },
      {
        "text": "futile to continue to fight [Trinity].” R. 2-16 at 2, PageID 164. Other employees felt pressured",
        "paragraph_id": "para_906"
      },
      {
        "text": "to refrain from even discussing the union at work, especially as supervisors informed new hires",
        "paragraph_id": "para_907"
      },
      {
        "text": "“that there was no union at the facility and that there never would be again,” suggesting a",
        "paragraph_id": "para_908"
      },
      {
        "text": "growing sentiment of futility and fear. R. 2-16 at 2–3, PageID 164–65. The affidavit also",
        "paragraph_id": "para_909"
      },
      {
        "text": "describes various policy revisions that Trinity instituted unilaterally after withdrawing",
        "paragraph_id": "para_910"
      },
      {
        "text": "recognition, including changing employees’ healthcare benefits, cutting premium-pay benefits,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_911"
      },
      {
        "text": "revising overtime calculations, increasing the shift length required to receive a lunch break, and",
        "paragraph_id": "para_912"
      },
      {
        "text": "misclassifying employees to exclude certain bargaining-unit members from pay increases. R. 2-",
        "paragraph_id": "para_913"
      },
      {
        "text": "16 at 4, PageID 166. This account of the hospital’s sweeping changes are consistent with the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_914"
      },
      {
        "text": "ALJ’s finding that the hospital unilaterally rescinded 16 policies after withdrawing recognition,",
        "paragraph_id": "para_915"
      },
      {
        "text": "R. 56-1 at 33, PageID 3071, lending support to the district court’s decision to credit Kauffman’s",
        "paragraph_id": "para_916"
      },
      {
        "text": "affidavit.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_917"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 32",
        "paragraph_id": "para_918"
      },
      {
        "text": "The corroborated fact that the hospital altered many policies governing pay and",
        "paragraph_id": "para_919"
      },
      {
        "text": "conditions of employment reinforces the conclusion that the Director showed a likelihood of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_920"
      },
      {
        "text": "irreparable harm. As I have explained, the irreparable-harm inquiry in this context assesses the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_921"
      },
      {
        "text": "potential damage to the Board’s remedies, such as ordering the employer to resume good-faith",
        "paragraph_id": "para_922"
      },
      {
        "text": "collective bargaining, by considering support for the union and the original bargaining positions",
        "paragraph_id": "para_923"
      },
      {
        "text": "of the union and employer. See Muffley, 570 F.3d at 544; Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1362–63. That",
        "paragraph_id": "para_924"
      },
      {
        "text": "damage is not speculative here: “affirmative evidence,” Maj. Op. at 14, from multiple sources",
        "paragraph_id": "para_925"
      },
      {
        "text": "shows that the hospital’s unilateral actions have significantly distorted the parties’ bargaining",
        "paragraph_id": "para_926"
      },
      {
        "text": "positions. If the Board were to ultimately order a bargaining remedy, the union would need to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_927"
      },
      {
        "text": "recover the ground lost by the hospital’s unilateral policy changes before it could bargain for",
        "paragraph_id": "para_928"
      },
      {
        "text": "additional benefits. By widening the gap between its own position and the union’s in future",
        "paragraph_id": "para_929"
      },
      {
        "text": "rounds of bargaining, the hospital has weakened the Board’s remedial powers.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_930"
      },
      {
        "text": "The Director timely acted upon these risks. She petitioned for injunctive relief within",
        "paragraph_id": "para_931"
      },
      {
        "text": "four months after she filed unfair-labor charges challenging Trinity’s withdrawal of union",
        "paragraph_id": "para_932"
      },
      {
        "text": "recognition, the event that triggered her statutory authority to petition the district court. See 29",
        "paragraph_id": "para_933"
      },
      {
        "text": "U.S.C. § 160(j). The majority disputes that starting point, but accepts that seeking injunctive",
        "paragraph_id": "para_934"
      },
      {
        "text": "relief within four months would be prompt enough. Maj. Op. at 19 (citing NLRB v. Hartman &",
        "paragraph_id": "para_935"
      },
      {
        "text": "Tyner, Inc., 714 F.3d 1244, 1249 (11th Cir. 2013)). Even if the Director’s clock started when",
        "paragraph_id": "para_936"
      },
      {
        "text": "Trinity withdrew recognition, a seven-month delay would still fall within the timeline that courts",
        "paragraph_id": "para_937"
      },
      {
        "text": "have accepted for granting a preliminary injunction. Muffley, 570 F.3d at 544–45 (affirming",
        "paragraph_id": "para_938"
      },
      {
        "text": "injunctive relief requested eighteen months after the NLRB filed its complaint). Either way, the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_939"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director timed her petition appropriately, requesting injunctive relief after harm had begun to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_940"
      },
      {
        "text": "accrue but before it became irreparable.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_941"
      },
      {
        "text": "There is a different delay worthy of concern, however: the years-long wait for the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_942"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director to obtain final relief. The Board only recently regained a quorum, and it presumably",
        "paragraph_id": "para_943"
      },
      {
        "text": "must toil through a considerable backlog. Maj. Op. at 4; see Poor, 162 F.4th at 352. Even after",
        "paragraph_id": "para_944"
      },
      {
        "text": "it adjudicates Trinity’s administrative appeal, the Board would still need to petition for judicial",
        "paragraph_id": "para_945"
      },
      {
        "text": "enforcement of its order. Maj. Op. at 6. This litigation timeline exacerbates the risk that the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_946"
      },
      {
        "text": "initial decline in union support and distortion to the parties’ ex ante bargaining positions will",
        "paragraph_id": "para_947"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 33",
        "paragraph_id": "para_948"
      },
      {
        "text": "continue unabated, rendering worthless the NLRB’s final remedy of ordering the employer to",
        "paragraph_id": "para_949"
      },
      {
        "text": "recognize the union.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_950"
      },
      {
        "text": "In sum, while the evidence could have led the district court to a different conclusion, it",
        "paragraph_id": "para_951"
      },
      {
        "text": "sufficiently supports its irreparable-harm finding to preclude us from substituting our judgment.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_952"
      },
      {
        "text": "II",
        "paragraph_id": "para_953"
      },
      {
        "text": "Briefly, I also disagree with the majority regarding the balance of the equities and the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_954"
      },
      {
        "text": "public interest. The balance of the equities favor the Director because Trinity’s “parade of",
        "paragraph_id": "para_955"
      },
      {
        "text": "horribles” fail to persuade, Maj. Op. at 20, so no cognizable harm to the employer outweighs the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_956"
      },
      {
        "text": "Director’s irreparable-harm showing. The public interest also favors injunctive relief. The",
        "paragraph_id": "para_957"
      },
      {
        "text": "National Labor Relations Act, by its plain text, protects the unionization preference of the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_958"
      },
      {
        "text": "bargaining-unit majority. See 29 U.S.C. §§ 157, 158(a)(1). Because the evidence here indicates",
        "paragraph_id": "para_959"
      },
      {
        "text": "that a majority of the bargaining-unit employees supported the union, see Maj. Op. at 10–12, the",
        "paragraph_id": "para_960"
      },
      {
        "text": "public interest lies in vindicating that preference. See Frankl, 650 F.3d at 1365 (quoting Miller",
        "paragraph_id": "para_961"
      },
      {
        "text": "v. Cal. Pac. Med. Ctr., 19 F.3d 449, 460 (9th Cir. 1994) (en banc)) (“In § 10(j) cases, the public",
        "paragraph_id": "para_962"
      },
      {
        "text": "interest is to ensure that an unfair labor practice will not succeed because the Board takes too",
        "paragraph_id": "para_963"
      },
      {
        "text": "long to investigate and adjudicate the charge”). The Director has satisfied the third and fourth",
        "paragraph_id": "para_964"
      },
      {
        "text": "Winter factors.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_965"
      },
      {
        "text": "III",
        "paragraph_id": "para_966"
      },
      {
        "text": "The majority opinion understandably seeks to preserve Winter’s rigor, but it travels too",
        "paragraph_id": "para_967"
      },
      {
        "text": "far in the opposite direction. Any preliminary-injunction analysis must accommodate some",
        "paragraph_id": "para_968"
      },
      {
        "text": "predictive reasoning—the point, after all, is to prevent irreparable harm before it occurs. When",
        "paragraph_id": "para_969"
      },
      {
        "text": "reviewing requests for preliminary injunctions of all stripes, including § 10(j) petitions, our court",
        "paragraph_id": "para_970"
      },
      {
        "text": "and others have long permitted district courts to find a likelihood of irreparable harm if factual",
        "paragraph_id": "para_971"
      },
      {
        "text": "findings about the present support permissive inferences about the future. This framework does",
        "paragraph_id": "para_972"
      },
      {
        "text": "not convert the preliminary injunction from an extraordinary and discretionary remedy into an",
        "paragraph_id": "para_973"
      },
      {
        "text": "ordinary and automatic one. See Hooks, 54 F.4th at 1119–20 (vacating a preliminary injunction);",
        "paragraph_id": "para_974"
      },
      {
        "text": "Henderson, 902 F.3d at 440–43 (affirming the denial of a preliminary injunction). Rather than",
        "paragraph_id": "para_975"
      },
      {
        "text": "compelling pro-Board outcomes, it merely asks the right questions: are there facts clearly",
        "paragraph_id": "para_976"
      },
      {
        "text": "No. 24-1975 Kerwin v. Trinity Health Grand Haven Hosp. Page 34",
        "paragraph_id": "para_977"
      },
      {
        "text": "indicating a present weakening of the union’s support and bargaining position, and do those facts",
        "paragraph_id": "para_978"
      },
      {
        "text": "support an inference that the union’s strength will continue to decline before the Board can issue",
        "paragraph_id": "para_979"
      },
      {
        "text": "and enforce a final bargaining-order remedy? Because the majority opinion departs from this",
        "paragraph_id": "para_980"
      },
      {
        "text": "framework, creating inter- and intra-circuit conflict in the process, I respectfully dissent.",
        "paragraph_id": "para_981"
      }
    ],
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